Sosvilla Rivero, Simón and Ramos-Herrera, Maria del Carmen (2011) The US Dollar-Euro exchange rate and US-EMU bond yield differentials: A Causality Analysis. [Working Paper or Technical Report]
| PDF Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. 189Kb |
Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/12898/
Abstract
This paper test for causality between the US Dollar-Euro exchange rate and US-EMU bond yield differentials. To that end, we apply Hsiao (1981)’s sequential procedure to daily data covering the 1999-2011 period. Our results suggest the existence of statistically significant Granger causality running one-way from bond yield differentials to the exchange rate, but not the other way around.
| Item Type: | Working Paper or Technical Report |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Causality, Exchange rate, Long-term interest rates, Rolling regression |
| Subjects: | Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics Social sciences > Economics > Stock exchanges Social sciences > Economics > World economy |
| Series Name: | Working Paper |
| Volume: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Number: | 07/11 |
| ID Code: | 12898 |
| References: | Akaike, H. (1969), “Fitting autoregressive models for regression”, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 21, pp. 243-247. Alexius, A. (2001), "Uncovered interest parity revisited", Review of International Economics, Vol. 9, pp. 505–517. Carrión-i-Silvestre, J. L., Sansó-i-Roselló, A., Ortuño, M. A. (2001), “Unit root and stationarity tests’ wedding”, Economics Letters, Vol. 70, pp. 1–8. Chinn, M. and Meredith, G. (2004): "Monetary policy and long-horizon uncovered interest parity", IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 51, pp. 409–430. Engel, C. (1996): "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence", Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 3, pp. 123–192. Flood, R. P. and Taylor, M. P. (1996), "Exchange rate economics: what’s wrong with the conventional macro approach?", in: Frankel, J., Galli, G. and Giovanni A. (eds.): The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, Chicago, pp. 262–301. Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica. Vol. 37, pp. 24-36. Hsiao, C. (1981), “Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 7, pp. 85–106. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models”, Econometrica.Vol. 59, pp. 1551–1580. Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood-based inference on cointegrated vectors autoregressive models. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Kwiatkowski, D. Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992): “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the Alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, pp.159–178. Thornton, D. L., and Batten, D. S. (1985). “Lag-length selection and tests of Granger causality between money and income”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 27, pp. 164-178. Williams, E.J. (1959): Regression analysis. New York, Wiley. |
| Deposited On: | 06 Jul 2011 14:37 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Jul 2011 10:58 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page



