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Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan


Chang, Chia-Lin y McAleer, Michael y Lim, Christine (2011) Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan. [ Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 28, 2011, ] (No publicado)

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This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.

Tipo de documento:Documento de trabajo o Informe técnico
Palabras clave:Tourist arrivals, Lng haul, Sort haul, Rsk, Conditional volatility, Aymmetric effect, Lverage.
Materias:Ciencias Sociales > Economía > Turismo
Ciencias Sociales > Economía > Econometría
Ciencias Sociales > Economía > Indicadores económicos
JEL:C22, G32, L83
Título de serie o colección:Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Código ID:12999

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Depositado:20 Jul 2011 07:44
Última Modificación:17 Jun 2016 09:00

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