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Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

Chang, Chia-Lin and McAleer, Michael and Lim, Christine (2011) Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan. [ Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico; nº 31, 2011, ] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Additional Information:

JEL Classifications: C22, G32, L83.
* For financial support, the first author acknowledges the National Science Council, Taiwan, and the second author acknowledges the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science..

Uncontrolled Keywords:Tourist arrivals, Long haul, Short haul, Risk, Conditional volatility, Asymmetric effect, Leverage.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Tourism
Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
Series Name:Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
Volume:2011
Number:31
ID Code:13217
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Deposited On:06 Sep 2011 11:04
Last Modified:06 Feb 2014 09:43

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