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La Transición Energética en China

Palazuelos Manso, Enrique and García Fernández-Muro, Clara (2007) La Transición Energética en China. [Working Paper or Technical Report]

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Abstract

China está pasando, desde principios de los años noventa y más aún desde el comienzo del presente siglo,
por una transformación de su sistema energético. Este trabajo analiza, en primer lugar, los rasgos que están
caracterizando la transición del sistema energético, destacando la existencia de (cuatro) líneas de continuidad
con el esquema tradicional y (siete) líneas de ruptura con dicho esquema. A continuación, analiza la
influencia determinante que sobre esos cambios energéticos están ejerciendo tres cambios fundamentales de
la economía durante la fase actual de desarrollo: el fuerte crecimiento y la transformación que experimenta la
especialización del sector industrial, el impulso del sector de transporte y las nuevas pautas sociales que se
derivan del proceso de urbanización y de los hábitos de consumo. Esa base analítica permite formular la hipótesis
de que, bajo el supuesto (realista) de que esos tres factores seguirán presentes en la dinámica de desarrollo
a lo largo de la próxima década, seguirán siendo los principales condicionantes de la transición energética.
El estudio de los cinco grandes dilemas a los que se enfrenta la transición china induce a la conclusión
de que el escenario energético más razonable es netamente continuista con respecto a las tendencias actuales
de la transición energética.
Abstract
Since the beginning of the 1990s, and especially since the beginning of the current century, the Chinese
energy system has been undergoing deep changes. In this work we analyze, first, the features of China’s energy
transition, highlighting (four) continuities and (seven) departures in relation to traditional structures.
Second, we analyze the influence exerted over changes in the energy system by three major shifts in the Chinese
economy during its current development phase: strong growth and the transformation of industrial
specialization; transportation expansion; and new social patterns emerging from urbanization and new consumption
habits. This analytical base allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, under the (realistic) assumption
that these three development factors will prevail in the next decade, they will remain the main
determinants of the energy transition. Finally, studying the five major dilemmas faced by China’s energy
transition brings us to the conclusion that the most likely scenario will be a continuation of China’s current
energy transition trends.

Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Additional Information:JEL Classification: Q40, O53, O29. Este trabajo forma parte de un proyecto del Grupo de Investigación sobre Crecimiento de la Economía Mundial (GICEM) que analiza comparativamente los sistemas energéticos de las tres grandes regiones de la economía mundial (Unión Europea, América del Norte y Asia Oriental) que son altamente dependientes en energía. El proyecto de investigación cuenta en 2007 con financiación del gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid, en el Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-CCMM en el marco del IV Plan Regional de Investigación. Este análisis comparativo requiere la utilización de fuentes de información que sean uniformes, lo cual sólo es posible a través de la International Energy Agency. Por esa razón, la mayor parte de la información estadística que hemos utilizado en este trabajo procede de los Energy balances of non-OECDE Countries, 1960-2004, publicados por la IEA (2006) en CD-rom, si bien para ciertos datos hemos contado también con fuentes chinas, a través del Nacional Bureau of Statistics, y de otros organismos como el Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), la Energy Information Administration U.S. junto con información adicional recogida de trabajos citados en el texto.
Uncontrolled Keywords:Transición energética, China, Desarrollo económico, Sistema energético, Dependencia energética, Energy transition, China, Economic development, Energy system, Energy Dependency.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Economic development
Series Name:Working Papers
Volume:2007
Number:WP05/0
ID Code:13473
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