Biblioteca de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid

On the number of recovered individuals in the SIS and SIR stochastic epidemic models

Impacto

Artalejo, Jesús R. y Economou, A. y Lopez-Herrero, M. J. (2010) On the number of recovered individuals in the SIS and SIR stochastic epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 228 (1). pp. 45-55. ISSN 0025-5564

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URL Oficial: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00255564




Resumen

The basic models of infectious disease dynamics (the SIS and SIR models) are considered. Particular attention is paid to the number of infected individuals that recovered and its relationship with the final epidemic size. We investigate this descriptor both until the extinction of the epidemic and in transient regime. Simple and efficient methods to obtain the distribution of the number of recovered individuals and its moments are proposed and discussed with respect to the previous work. The methodology could also be extended to other stochastic epidemic models. The theory is illustrated by numerical experiments, which demonstrate that the proposed computational methods can be applied efficiently. in particular, we use the distribution of the number of individuals removed in the SIR model in conjunction with data of outbreaks of ESBL observed in the intensive care unit of a Spanish hospital.


Tipo de documento:Artículo
Palabras clave:Quasi-stationary distributions; Size; Time; Recovered individuals; Stochastic SIS model; Stochastic SIR model; Extinction time; Transient behavior; Outbreak of ESBL
Materias:Ciencias > Matemáticas > Procesos estocásticos
Código ID:14946
Depositado:24 Abr 2012 10:48
Última Modificación:06 Feb 2014 10:12

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