Sánchez-Manzano, E.G. and Gómez Villegas, Miguel Ángel and Tejada Cazorla, Juan Antonio (1999) The dynamic linear model: an application to flood forecasting. Revista de la Real Academia de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, 93 (3). pp. 367-374. ISSN 1137-2141
| PDF Restricted to Repository staff only until 2020. 1247Kb |
Official URL: http://www.rac.es/4/4_2_2.php
Abstract
This paper introduces the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model to predict the flows (mainly in flood conditions) at a point of a river in successive instants of time, knowing the previous flows at several stations located up the river. The model is fitted to a Spanish river rises.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Sciences > Mathematics > Applied statistics |
| ID Code: | 16035 |
| References: | Ameen, J. R. M. and Harrison, P. J. (1985). Normal discount Bayesian models. In Bayesian Statistics 2 (Bernardo,J. M. et al. eds.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Brath, A., Buriando, P. and Rosso, R. (1988). Sensitivity analysis of real-time flood forecasting to on-line rainfall predictions. In Natural Disasters in European Mediterranean Countries (Sicardi, F. and Bras, R. L. eds.), 469-488, Perugia, Warredoc. Brath, A. and Rosso, R (1993). Adaptive calibration of a conceptual model for flash flood forecasting. Water Resour. Res., 29, 8, 2561-2572. Coles, S. G. (1993). Regional modeling of extreme storms via max-stable processes. Journ. of the Royal Stat. Soc. B., 55, 797-816. Harrison, P. J. and West, M (1987). Practical Bayesian forecasting. The Statistician, 36, 115-125. Hoos, A. B., Koussis, A. D. and Beale, G. O. (1989). A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting. Water Resour. Res., IS, 4, 691-705. Kockh, R. W. and Smillie, G. M. (1986). Bias in hydrologie prediction using long-transformed regression models. Water Resour. Bulletin, 22, 5, 717-723. Krzysztofowicz, R. (1983). A Bayesian Markov model of the flood forecast process. Water Resour. Res., 19, 6,1455-1465. O'Connell, P. E. and Clarke, R. T. (1981). Adaptive hydrological forecasting-A review. Hydrol. Sci. Bull, 26, 2, 179-205. Perichi, L. R. and Rodriguez Iturbe, I. (1985). On the statistical analysis of floods. In A celebration of statistics (Atkinson, A. and Fienberg, S. eds.). New York: Springer-Verlag. Reznicek, K. and Cheng, T. C. E. (1991). Stochastic modeling of reservoir operations. Invited review. European Journ. of Operat. Res., 50, 235-248. West, M. and Harrison, J. (1989). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. New York: Springer-Verlag. Yakowitz, S. (1982). Dynamic programming applications in water resources. Water Resour. Res., 18, 673-696. |
| Deposited On: | 20 Jul 2012 13:19 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Jul 2012 13:19 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page



