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Modeling the stochastic dynamics of the aggregate stock in collapsed fisheries: The case of the Northern cod stock

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Maroto Fernández, José María and Morán Cabré, Manuel (2013) Modeling the stochastic dynamics of the aggregate stock in collapsed fisheries: The case of the Northern cod stock. [ ] (Unpublished)

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Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/23024/



Abstract

Motivated by the evidence that many collapsed stocks have failed to recover despite the fact that fishing mortality has been reduced, or even when a moratorium is in effect, we develop a methodological approach using splines to analyze the stochastic population dynamics of fish stocks at low stock levels. Considering the aggregate Northern cod stock by way of illustration, we find that the species’ lack of recovery, despite the moratorium which still remains in force, is consistent with the hypothesis of depensatory population dynamics at low population sizes, as opposed to the compensation estimated by the conventional regression methods used in classic bioeconomic models.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Additional Information:

We are grateful to Noel Roy, Peter Shelton, and Carl Walters for their comments. We also
appreciate the attention and comments of the seminar participants at the Centre for Fisheries
Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), Bergen (2012), as well as the
participants at the 2012 ISEE Conference, 2012 WFC Conference, and 2012 IIFET
Conference.

Uncontrolled Keywords:Stochastic population dynamics; Compensation; Depensation; Northern cod collapse; Splines; Demographic uncertainty.
Subjects:Medical sciences > Biology > Biomathematics
Sciences > Mathematics > Applied statistics
Sciences > Mathematics > Mathematical statistics
Medical sciences > Biology > Fishes
Medical sciences > Biology > Marine biology
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ID Code:23024
Deposited On:15 Oct 2013 14:10
Last Modified:19 Dec 2018 10:04

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