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Component versus tradicional models to forecast quarterly national account aggregates: a Monte Carlo experiment

Marrero, Gustavo A. (2004) Component versus tradicional models to forecast quarterly national account aggregates: a Monte Carlo experiment. [ Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 0410, 2004, ]

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Abstract

Econometric models applied to observed data, specified and estimated using traditional Box-Jenkins techniques, have been widely used to forecast Quarterly National Account
(QNA) aggregates. We assess the extent to which an alternative forecasting procedure, based on component models, improves the forecasting accuracy of traditional methods. Component models distinguish between the stochastic processes underlying the low- and the high-frequency component of time series, while traditional methods do not. Relationships between QNA aggregates and their coincident indicators are often significantly different
for diverse frequencies, as suggested by even an informal examination of empirical evidence. Under these circumstances, a Monte Carlo out-of-sample experiment reveals that component models improve the forecasting accuracy of traditional methods to predict QNA aggregates
when their coincident indicators play an important role in such predictions. Otherwise, specially when dealing with pure univariate specifications, traditional procedures likely beat component methods. We illustrate these findings with several applications for the Spanish economy.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Additional Information:

JEL Classification: C15, C22, C53, E32, E37

Uncontrolled Keywords:Forecasting, QNA aggregates, Coincident indicators, Component models, Monte Carlo experiment
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
Series Name:Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Volume:2004
Number:0410
ID Code:7724
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Deposited On:11 Mar 2008
Last Modified:06 Feb 2014 07:55

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