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Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: estudios empíricos

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Donoso, Vicente y Martín, Víctor (2009) Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: estudios empíricos. [ Working Papers; nº 05, 2009, ]

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URL Oficial: http://eprints.ucm.es/9624




Resumen

El trabajo tiene por objeto revisar los principales estudios empíricos que se han llevado a cabo para contrastar la hipótesis de las exportaciones como motor del crecimiento económico. Debido a la ambigüedad teórica de los argumentos, se hace necesario recurrir a los análisis empíricos. Estos se ordenan según la metodología empleada en ellos, que ha sido variada: desde el simple análisis de caso, pasando por los modelos de regresión de sección cruzada, las ecuaciones simultáneas y el empleo de funciones de producción, hasta las técnicas más recientes de cointegración y de modelos de corrección del error. La principal conclusión es la persistencia de claras discrepancias en muchos de estos estudios, incluso cuando se refieren a parecidos países, en semejantes períodos temporales y habiéndose empleado las mismas técnicas. Este resultado aconseja ser cautelosos a la hora de utilizar la hipótesis export led growth, en cuanto recomendación general, para todo tiempo y país, de la política económica y comercial.

Resumen (otros idiomas)

In this paper we provide a comprehensive survey of the empirical literature on the export led growth (ELG) hypotheis. The empirical literature has been ordered according to the different methodologies used to examine for relationships between exports and economic growth: case studies, cross-section models, simultaneous equation models and time series models using cointegration technics and error correction models. The main finding is the persistence of clear discrepancies in many of these studies, even when applied to similar countries, in similar time periods and having used the same techniques. This result suggests that we must be cautious, when promoting export activity as a general comercial policy recommendation for any country and time period.

Tipo de documento:Documento de trabajo o Informe técnico
Palabras clave:Exportaciones, Crecimiento, Función de producción, Cointegración, Modelo de corrección del error.
Palabras clave (otros idiomas):Exports, Economic growth, Cointegration, Error correction models.
Materias:Ciencias Sociales > Economía > Estructura económica
Título de serie o colección:Working Papers
Volumen:2009
Número:05
Código ID:9624
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