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On the Role of Relative Prices and Capital Flows in Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth: the Experiences of Portugal and Spain in the Euro Area

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Garcimartín, Carlos and Rivas, Luis and García Martínez, Pilar (2010) On the Role of Relative Prices and Capital Flows in Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth: the Experiences of Portugal and Spain in the Euro Area. [ Working Papers; nº 05, 2010, ]

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Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/10529




Abstract

Broadly speaking, the balance-of-payments constraint hypothesis as developed by Thirlwall has been empirically supported. Yet, it shows some shortcomings highlighted in the literature. In our opinion, two of them must be analysed. First, temporary disequilibria and capital flows must be incorporated into the balance-of-payments constrained growth models. Second, the role of relative prices must be made explicit, since it can be relevant even in an external constraint framework. This study is aimed at developing a model that incorporates both possibilities: temporary external disequilibria and a the impact of relative prices. This model is subsequently used to analyse the evolution of the Spanish and Portuguese economies in last decades, and, in particular, the different path shown by both countries since their accession to the Eurozone.

Resumen (otros idiomas)

Pese al respaldo empírico con el que ha contado la teoría de la restricción externa desarrollada a partir del modelo de Thirlwall, éste muestra algunas deficiencias destacadas en la literatura. En nuestra opinión, dos de ellas merecen ser analizadas. Por un lado, la necesidad de incorporar desequilibrios transitorios de la balanza de pagos y los consiguientes flujos de capital. Por otro, creemos los precios relativos pueden desempeñar un papel importante en el comercio exterior, sin que ello invalide la existencia de una restricción externa. El objetivo del presente trabajo consiste en desarrollar un modelo que incorpore ambas cuestiones, permitiendo, así, un mayor protagonismo a los precios relativos y a los desequilibrios temporales de la balanza de pagos. Este modelo se emplea posteriormente para analizar la evolución de las economías española y portuguesa en las últimas décadas y, en especial, las diferencias mostradas desde su incorporación a la Eurozona.

Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Growth, Balance of payments constraint, Exchange rate.
Palabras clave (otros idiomas):Crecimiento, Restricción externa, Tipo de cambio.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Economic development
Social sciences > Economics > Commerce
Social sciences > Economics > Economic indicators
Series Name:Working Papers
Volume:2010
Number:05
ID Code:10529
Deposited On:27 Apr 2010 10:16
Last Modified:25 Apr 2016 11:03

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