Universidad Complutense de Madrid
E-Prints Complutense

Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

Impacto

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year



Chang, Chia-Lin and McAleer, Michael and Lim, Christine (2011) Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan. [ Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 28, 2011, ] (Unpublished)

[img]
Preview
PDF
Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial.

300kB

Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/12999/


URLURL Type
https://www.ucm.es/icaeOrganisation


Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Tourist arrivals, Lng haul, Sort haul, Rsk, Conditional volatility, Aymmetric effect, Lverage.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Tourism
Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
Social sciences > Economics > Economic indicators
JEL:C22, G32, L83
Series Name:Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Volume:2011
Number:28
ID Code:12999
Deposited On:20 Jul 2011 07:44
Last Modified:17 Jun 2016 09:00

Origin of downloads

Repository Staff Only: item control page