Publication: La Transición Energética en China
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2007
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Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
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Abstract
China está pasando, desde principios de los años noventa y más aún desde el comienzo del presente siglo, por una transformación de su sistema energético. Este trabajo analiza, en primer lugar, los rasgos que están caracterizando la transición del sistema energético, destacando la existencia de (cuatro) líneas de continuidad con el esquema tradicional y (siete) líneas de ruptura con dicho esquema. A continuación, analiza la influencia determinante que sobre esos cambios energéticos están ejerciendo tres cambios fundamentales de la economía durante la fase actual de desarrollo: el fuerte crecimiento y la transformación que experimenta la especialización del sector industrial, el impulso del sector de transporte y las nuevas pautas sociales que se derivan del proceso de urbanización y de los hábitos de consumo. Esa base analítica permite formular la hipótesis de que, bajo el supuesto (realista) de que esos tres factores seguirán presentes en la dinámica de desarrollo a lo largo de la próxima década, seguirán siendo los principales condicionantes de la transición energética. El estudio de los cinco grandes dilemas a los que se enfrenta la transición china induce a la conclusión de que el escenario energético más razonable es netamente continuísta con respecto a las tendencias actuales de la transición energética.
Since the beginning of the 1990s, and especially since the beginning of the current century, the Chinese energy system has been undergoing deep changes. In this work we analyze, first, the features of China’s energy transition, highlighting (four) continuities and (seven) departures in relation to traditional structures. Second, we analyze the influence exerted over changes in the energy system by three major shifts in the Chinese economy during its current development phase: strong growth and the transformation of industrial specialization; transportation expansion; and new social patterns emerging from urbanization and new consumption habits. This analytical base allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, under the (realistic) assumption that these three development factors will prevail in the next decade, they will remain the main determinants of the energy transition. Finally, studying the five major dilemmas faced by China’s energy transition brings us to the conclusion that the most likely scenario will be a continuation of China’s current energy transition trends.
Since the beginning of the 1990s, and especially since the beginning of the current century, the Chinese energy system has been undergoing deep changes. In this work we analyze, first, the features of China’s energy transition, highlighting (four) continuities and (seven) departures in relation to traditional structures. Second, we analyze the influence exerted over changes in the energy system by three major shifts in the Chinese economy during its current development phase: strong growth and the transformation of industrial specialization; transportation expansion; and new social patterns emerging from urbanization and new consumption habits. This analytical base allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, under the (realistic) assumption that these three development factors will prevail in the next decade, they will remain the main determinants of the energy transition. Finally, studying the five major dilemmas faced by China’s energy transition brings us to the conclusion that the most likely scenario will be a continuation of China’s current energy transition trends.
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Este trabajo forma parte de un proyecto del Grupo de Investigación sobre Crecimiento de la Economía Mundial (GICEM) que analiza comparativamente los sistemas energéticos de las tres grandes regiones de la economía mundial (Unión Europea, América del Norte y Asia Oriental) que son altamente dependientes en energía. El proyecto de investigación cuenta en 2007 con financiación del gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid, en el Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-CCMM en el marco del IV Plan Regional de Investigación. Este análisis comparativo requiere la utilización de fuentes de información que sean uniformes, lo cual sólo es posible a través de la International Energy Agency. Por esa razón, la mayor parte de la información estadística que hemos utilizado en este trabajo procede de los Energy balances of non-OECDE Countries, 1960-2004, publicados por la IEA (2006) en CD-rom, si bien para ciertos datos hemos contado también con fuentes chinas, a través del Nacional Bureau of Statistics, y de otros organismos como el Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), la Energy Information Administration U.S. junto con información adicional recogida de trabajos citados en el texto.
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