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Herding, Information Cascades and Volatility Spillovers in Futures Markets

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McAleer, Michael and Radalj , Kim (2013) Herding, Information Cascades and Volatility Spillovers in Futures Markets. [ Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 25, 2013, ] (Unpublished)

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Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/22181/


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Abstract

Economists and financial analysts have begun to recognise the importance of the actions of other agents in the decision-making process. Herding is the deliberate mimicking of the decisions of other agents. Examples of mimicry range from the choice of restaurant, fashion and financial market participants, to academic research. Herding may conjure negative images of irrational agents sheepishly following the actions of others, but such actions can be rational under asymmetric information and uncertainty. This paper uses futures position data in nine different markets of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide a direct test of herding behaviour, namely the extent to which small traders mimic the positions of large speculators. Evidence consistent with herding among small traders is found for the Canadian dollar, British pound, gold, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 futures. Consistent with survey-based results on technical analysis, the positions are significantly correlated with both current and past market returns. Using various time-varying volatility models to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity, the empirical results are found to be robust to alternative models and methods of estimation. When a test of causality-in-variance is used to analyse if volatility among small traders spills over into spot markets, it is found that spillovers occur only with Nikkei 225 futures. The policy implications of the findings are also discussed.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Additional Information:

JEL Classification: D82, D84, G12, G14.

Revised: June 2013.

The authors are most grateful to Felix Chan for helpful discussions. For financial support, the first author wishes to thank the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The second author wishes to acknowledge the financial assistance of a Hackett Postgraduate Scholarship at the University of Western Australia.

Uncontrolled Keywords:Herding, Speculation, Hedging, Noise traders, Currency and commodity markets, Futures and spot markets, Time-varying volatility, Causality-in-variance, Spillovers.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
Series Name:Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Volume:2013
Number:25
ID Code:22181
Deposited On:02 Jul 2013 09:32
Last Modified:16 Feb 2016 10:33

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