Publication: Evidencia empírica de endogeneidad monetaria en España (1980-2012)
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2013-12
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Abstract
En este trabajo se contrasta la hipótesis de endogeneidad monetaria en la economía española durante el período 1980-2012 desde un enfoque kaleckiano. Se aporta evidencia de las fluctuaciones y oscilaciones cíclicas de los agregados monetarios y el volumen de crédito bancario, junto con las relaciones de cointegración y de causalidad existentes entre las variables. Además, como los resultados de la tasa de variación no son concluyentes se desarrolla un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR) con objeto de estimar el comportamiento de las variables M3 y créditos durante el período 1998-2012. Por lo tanto, esta investigación supone una renovación de las estimaciones realizadas hasta la fecha para la economía española.
This paper deals with the monetary endogeneity hypothesis in the Spanish economy during the period 1980-2012 from a Kaleckian approach. Evidence of fluctuations and cyclical fluctuations of monetary aggregates and the volume of bank credit is provided, along with cointegration and causality between variables. Furthermore, as the results of the rate of change is inconclusive Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) in order to estimate the behavior of the variables M3 and credits during the period 1998 to 2012 is developed. Therefore, this research is a renewal of the estimates to date for the Spanish economy.
This paper deals with the monetary endogeneity hypothesis in the Spanish economy during the period 1980-2012 from a Kaleckian approach. Evidence of fluctuations and cyclical fluctuations of monetary aggregates and the volume of bank credit is provided, along with cointegration and causality between variables. Furthermore, as the results of the rate of change is inconclusive Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) in order to estimate the behavior of the variables M3 and credits during the period 1998 to 2012 is developed. Therefore, this research is a renewal of the estimates to date for the Spanish economy.
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JEL: E41, E47, E51.
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