Publication: Estimación de la Ley de Okun en España, Dinamarca y Japón y análisis de previsiones para el caso español
Loading...
Official URL
Full text at PDC
Publication Date
2013-05-24
Authors
Advisors (or tutors)
Editors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Citations
Exportar
Abstract
En este trabajo se aborda un análisis práctico de la ley de Okun. Primero se repasa tanto su formulación original por Arthur Okun como el marco teórico con el que se define hoy en día. A continuación se estima la ley de Okun, por el
método de “niveles” y “cambios” para España, Dinamarca, y Japón durante el período 1985 – 2011. Estas tres economías se caracterizan por tener marcos laborales muy diferenciados, por lo que se analiza si sus características
particulares quedan reflejadas en las regresiones realizadas. Por último, se aplica la ley de Okun estimada para España en la realización de previsiones de la tasa de paro, tomando como referencia las realizadas por la Comisión
Europea y estudiando las causas de las posibles divergencias entre las estimaciones.
ABSTRACT: In this work we carry out a practical analysis of the Okun’s law. Firstly we review both its original introduction by Arthur Okun and the theoretical framework by
which it is defined nowadays. Next, we estimate the Okun’s law using the “levels” and “changes” methods for Spain, Denmark and Japan for the period 1985 – 2011. These three economies are characterized by having very different
labour frameworks, therefore, we analyse whether these particular features are reflected in our regressions. Lastly, we apply the estimated Okun’s law for Spain to forecast the unemployment rate development. We use the European Commission forecasts as a benchmark and analyse the explanation of possible divergences between both estimations.
Description
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Curso Académico 2012/2013.
UCM subjects
Unesco subjects
Keywords
Citation
Anca, I. (2012). "The Worlds Of Flexicurity-Labour Market Policies In Europe". Annals of Faculty of Economics, 1 (1), pp. 133-138, July. http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2012/n1/018.pdf .
Andersen M. T. and M. Svarer (2007). "Flexicurity – labour market performance in Denmark" Economics Working Papers 2007-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. http://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2108.html .
Bajo-Rubio, O., C. Diaz-Roldan, and V. Esteve (2007). "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002" Journal of Policy Modeling, 29(3), pp. 453-462. http://www.uclm.es/organos/vic_investigacion/gruposweb/inteconomics/pdf/phillipscurve.pdf .
Ball, L., D. Leigh, and P. Loungani (2012). “Okun’s law: Fit at 50?” IMF Working Papers 13/10, International Monetary Fund.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1310.pdf.
Comisión Europea (2012). “Evaluación del programa nacional de reforma y del programa de estabilidad de España para 2012” Documento de trabajo de los servicios de la Comisión. {COM(2012) 310 final} http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nd/swd2012_spain_es.pdf.
Comisión Europea (2012). Previsiones de invierno. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2013_winter_forecast_en.htm#documents .
Comisión Europea (2013). Previsiones de primavera.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2013_spring/es_en.pdf .
Doménech, R. y V. Gómez (2005). “Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española”. Investigaciones Economicas, 29(2), pp. 259-288. http://www.uv.es/rdomenec/output/kalman_spain.pdf .
FMI (2010). "Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun´s Law and Beyond". Capítulo 3 de World Economic Outlook. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/c3.pdf .
Garcia, G. (1998). "Unemployment and vacancies in Spain: Labour mismatch and active labour market policy". ERSA conference papers ersa98p182, European Regional Science Association. http://www-sre.wu-wen.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa98/papers/182.pdf .
Hamaaki, J., M. Hori, S. Maeda, and K. Murata (2011). "How Does the First Job Matter for an Individual’s Career Life in Japan?" CIS Discussion paper series 516, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research,
29. Hitotsubashi University. http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/19281/1/pie_dp516.pdf .
Harris, R. and B. Silverstone (2001). “Testing for asymetry in Okun’s law: A crosscountry comparison”. Economics Bulletin, 5 (2), pp. 1-13. http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2001/Volume5/EB-01E00001A.pdf .
Hashimoto, M. (1990). "Introduction". In The Japanese Labor Market in a Comparative Perspective with the United States: A Transaction-Cost Interpretation.
Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, pp. 1-11. http://research.upjohn.org/up_bookchapters/97/ .
Hashimoto, M. (1993). "Aspects of Labor Market Adjustments in Japan". Journal of Labor Economics, 11(1), pp. 136-61.
Hernández de Cos, P., M. Izquierdo y A. Urtasun (2011). ”Una estimación del crecimiento potencial de la economía española”. Documentos Ocasionales, n. 1104, Banco de España.
http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/11/Fich/do1104.pdf .
Hodrick, E. and E. Prescott (1997). “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 1-16. http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/rhodrick/prescott-hodrick1997.pdf .
Izquierdo, M., E. Ortega y A. Urtasun (2012). “Un análisis sectorial de la relación entre la actividad y el empleo”. Boletín Económico, julio-agosto 2012, Banco de España.
http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/BoletinEconomico/12/Jul/Fich/be1207-art3.pdf .
Jeon, Y. and M. Vernengo (2008). “Puzzles, Paradoxes, and Regularities: Cyclical and Structural Productivity in the United States (1950–2005)” Review of Radical Political Economics Summer, 40(3), pp. 237-243.
Knotek, E. II (2007). "How useful is Okun's law?" Economic Review, issue Q IV, pp. 73-103. http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/ECONREV/PDF/4q07Knotek.pdf .
Lucas, R. E. (1976). “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, pp. 19-46.
Maza, A. and J. Villaverde (2007). “Okun’s law in the Spanish regions”. Economics Bulletin 18 (5), pp. 1-11.
http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2007/Volume18/EB-07R10005A.pdf .
Maza, A. and J. Villaverde (2009). “The robustness of Okun’s law in Spain, 1980–2004 Regional evidence”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 289–297.
OCDE (2006). OECD Employment Outlook 2006, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/els/oecdemploymentoutlook-downloadableeditions1989-2011.htm .
OCDE (2008a). OECD Economic Surveys: Spain 2008, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/eco/economicsurveyofspain2008.htm .
Okun, A. (1962). “Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance”. In American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, pp. 98–104. http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p01b/p0190.pdf .
Rülke, J.C. (2012). "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries". Japan and the World Economy, 24(4), pp. 317-324.
Silvapulle, P., I. Moosa and M. Silvapulle (2004). "Asymmetry in Okun's law". Canadian Journal of Economics, 37(2), pp. 353-374.
Soegner, L. and A. Stiassny (2000). "A Cross-Country Study on Okun's Law". Working Papers geewp13, Vienna University of Economics and B.A. http://www.wu.ac.at/inst/vw1/gee/papers/gee!wp13.pdf .
Viren, M. (2001). "The Okun curve is non-linear". Economics Letters, 70(2), pp 253-257. http://web.ntpu.edu.tw/~tsair/2Research/Papers/okun/The%20Okun%20Curve%20Is%20Non-linear.pdf .
Wölf, A. and J. S. Mora-Sanguinetti (2011). “Reforming the Labour Market in Spain”. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 845, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kghtchh277h-en .