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A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk

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Ferrer Pérez, Alejandro and Casals Carro, José Manuel and Sotoca López, Sonia (2014) A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk. [ Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 11, 2014, ISSN: 2341-2356 ] (Unpublished)

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Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/25738/


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Abstract

This paper analyzes the unconditional measurement of default risk and proposes an alternative modeling approach. We begin the analysis by showing that when conducted under non-stationarity, the objective of the unconditional measurement changes and that some relevant problems appear as a consequence of the sample dependence. Based on this result, we introduce our approach and discuss its consistency, practical advantages, and the main differences from the conventional static framework. An empirical analysis is also conducted. Under nonstationarity, the regulatory model for the unconditional probability of default distribution performs badly when compared to our approach. Results also show that the capital figure presents a determinant and nontrivial dependence on the homogeneity and severity of the economic scenario represented in the sample.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Default risk, Probability of default, Unconditional measurement, Conditional measurement.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
JEL:C46, C58, G21, G32
Series Name:Documentos de Trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Volume:2014
Number:11
ID Code:25738
Deposited On:06 Jun 2014 08:26
Last Modified:26 Jan 2016 12:22

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