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Asset-market models of exchange-rate determination: Basic models, empirical evidence and extensions

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Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón (1991) Asset-market models of exchange-rate determination: Basic models, empirical evidence and extensions. [ Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales; nº 24, 1991, ]

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Abstract

In this paper we have reviewed the theoretical models associated with those approaches, focusing on the implied reduced-form equations.
We have also examined the empirical evidence on these models for the recent floating period, finding that econometric evidence on these models is mixed and inconclusive: they seem to work, to sorne extent, for the first period of the recent floating experience (i. e., 1975-1978), but they do not work so well in the 1980s. In addition, studies by Meese and Rogoff (¡983a, b) have Indicated that the explanatory power of econometric exchange rate models has been extremely poor. They conclude that models of exchange rates could not perform better than a naive random-walk model in the post sample forecasting tests, even when the explanatory variables used were the reallzed values during the post sample period.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Asset-market models; Exchange-rate
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Money
Social sciences > Economics > Econometrics
Series Name:Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
Volume:1991
Number:24
ID Code:26249
Deposited On:17 Jul 2014 11:01
Last Modified:17 Feb 2017 09:39

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