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Débil crecimiento y transformación productiva: un análisis de la economía alemana durante el período 1995-2007

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2014
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Este trabajo intenta explicar algunas de las claves del proceso de transformación productiva y débil crecimiento que ha experimentado Alemania en el período 1995-2007 a través del análisis de un conjunto de variables principales que relacionan la evolución de la demanda y la distribución de la renta con la estructura productiva. El análisis combina el estudio a nivel agregado del comportamiento de la economía con el estudio desagregado por grupos de ramas productivas. De esa forma se constatan las grandes diferencias que, en prácticamente todas las variables analizadas, existen entre la evolución de las manufacturas con mayor intensidad tecnológica y el resto de ramas. Como consecuencia, el análisis permite formular una explicación del modo en que la economía alemana experimentó al mismo tiempo una profunda transformación productiva y un lento crecimiento durante el período que antecede a la crisis financiera internacional iniciada en 2008.
This paper attempts to explain some of the key processes of the productive transformation and slow growth process which Germany went through between 1995 and 2007 by analysing a set of variables which connect the evolution of demand and the income distribution with productive structure. The analysis combines the study of aggregate economic behaviour to the disaggregated study of groups pertaining to productive branches. In this manner it is possible to observe large differences in almost all the analysed variables, which exist between evolution of the most technologyintensive manufactures and the rest of the branches. As a consequence, this analysis allows us to formulate an explanation of the way in which German economy went through a profound productive transformation and a slow growth process simultaneously, during the period preceding the global financial crisis, which began in 2008.
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