Publication: Previsión y seguimiento de ocupados por sectores, población activa y parados en España: una comparación de modelos alternativos
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1997
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
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Se demuestra que la desagregación del número de ocupados en sectores productivos y el análisis de las relaciones entre los componentes resultantes es relevante para obtener mejoras importantes en la previsión de los parados y los ocupados en España. Para ello, se investiga la capacidad predictiva de un conjunto de modelos univariantes y de transferencia, comparándola con la capacidad predictiva de un modelo multivariante que incorpora la desagregación del número de ocupados y sus relaciones.
It is shown that both the disaggregation of employment into productive sectors and the study of relationships among the resulting components are relevant tools for obtaining important improvements in forecasting employment and unemployment in Spain. For this purpose, the predictive capacity of a variety of univariate and transfer function models is investigated and compared with the predictive capacity of a multivariate model in which disaggregation and relationships are incorporated.
It is shown that both the disaggregation of employment into productive sectors and the study of relationships among the resulting components are relevant tools for obtaining important improvements in forecasting employment and unemployment in Spain. For this purpose, the predictive capacity of a variety of univariate and transfer function models is investigated and compared with the predictive capacity of a multivariate model in which disaggregation and relationships are incorporated.
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