Publication: A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model
Loading...
Full text at PDC
Publication Date
2011-01-27
Authors
Martínez López, Beatriz
Ivorra, Benjamin
Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel
Advisors (or tutors)
Editors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Citations
Exportar
Abstract
A new stochastic and spatial model was developed to evaluate the potential spread of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) within- and between-farms, and considering the specific farm-to-farm contact network. Within-farm transmission was simulated using a modified SI model. Between-farm transmission was assumed to occur by direct contacts (i.e. animal movement) and indirect contacts (i.e. local spread, vehicle and person contacts) and considering the spatial location of farms. Control measures dictated by the European legislation (i.e. depopulation of infected farms, movement restriction, zoning, surveillance, contact tracing) were also implemented into the model. Model experimentation was performed using real data from Segovia, one of the provinces with highest density of pigs in Spain, and results were presented using the mean, 95% probability intervals [95% PI] and risk maps. The estimated mean [95% PI] number of infected, quarantined and depopulated farms were 3 [1,17], 23 [0,76] and 115 [0,318], respectively. The duration of the epidemic was 63 [26,177] days and the most important way of transmission was associated with local spread (61.4% of the infections). Results were consistent with the spread of previous CSFV introductions into the study region. The model and results presented here may be useful for the decision making process and for the improvement of the prevention and control programmes for CSFV.
Description
UCM subjects
Unesco subjects
Keywords
Citation
Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., 1979. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature 280, 361–367.
Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., 1991. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Crauwels, A.P.P., Nielen, M., Elbers, A.R.W., Stegeman, J.A., Tielen, M.J.M., 2003. Neighbourhood infections of classical swine fever during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. Prev. Vet. Med. 61, 263–277.
CyL expert opinion (2008). Expert elicitation performed for foot-andmouth disease and classical swine fever with the Castile and Leon veterinary services, during November 5th 2008. Not published.
De Vos, C.J., Saatkamp, H.W., Huirne, R.B., Dijkhuizen, A.A., 2003. The risk of the introduction of classical swine fever virus at regional level in the European Union: a conceptual framework. Rev. Sci. Technol. 22, 795–810.
Elbers, A.T.W., Stegeman, A., Moser, H., Ekker, H.M., Smak, J.A., Pluimers, H., 1999. The classical swine fever epidemic 1997–1998 in the Netherlands: descriptive epidemiology. Prev. Vet. Med. 42, 157–184.
Jalvingh, A.W., Nielen, M., Maurice, H., Stegeman, A.J., Elbers, A.R.W., Dijkhuizen, A.A., 1999. Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997–1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. I. Description of simulation model. Vet. Microbiol. 42, 271–295.
Kartsen, S., Rave, G., Krieter, J., 2005a. Monte Calro simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. I. General concepts and description of the model. Vet. Microbiol. 108, 187–198.
Kartsen, S., Rave, G., Krieter, J., 2005b. Monte Calro simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. II. Validation of the model. Vet. Microbiol. 108, 187–198.
Klinkenberg, D., De Bree, J., Laevens, H., De Jong, M.C.M., 2002. Withinand between-pen transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus: a new method to estimate the basic reproduction ration from transmission experiments. Epidemiol. Infect. 128, 293–299.
MAPA, 2006. Manual práctico de operaciones en la lucha contra la peste porcina clásica (PPC). 121 pp., Available at: http://rasve.mapa.es/Publica/InformacionGeneral/Documentos/Manuales/Manual%20PPC%202006.pdf.
Martínez-López, B., Perez, A.M., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M., 2009. Evaluation of the potential spread and effectiveness of control measures for Classical Swine Fever into Spain by using a spatial and stochastic model. In: 12th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Durban, South Africa, 10–14 August, 2009
Milne, G., Fermanis, C., Johnston, P., 2008. A mobility model for classical swine fever in feral pig populations. Vet. Res. 39, 53.
OIE, 2009a. Handistatus II. Available at: Hhttp://www.oie.int/hs2/report.asp?lang=en.
OIE, 2009b. WAHID. Available at: http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=home.
Ribbens, S., Dewulf, J., Koenen, F., Maes, D., de Kruif, A., 2007. Evidence of indirect transmission of classical swine fever virus through contacts with people. Vet. Rec. 160, 687–690.
Saatkamp, H.W., Dijkhuizen, A.A., Geers, R., Huirne, R.B.M., Noordhuizent, J.P.T.M., Goedseels, V., 1996. Simulation studies on the epidemiological impact of national identification and recording systems on the control of classical swine fever in Belgium. Prev. Vet. Med. 26, 119–132.
Sanson, R.L., 1993. The development of a decision support system for an animal disease emergency. Ph.D. thesis. Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand, 264 pages.
Stärk, K.D.C., 1998. Systems for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in pigs. PhD thesis. EpiCentre, Massey University, New Zealand.
Stegeman, A., Elbers, A.R.W., Smak, J., de Jong, M.C.M., 1999. Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between farms during the 1997–1998 epidemic in The Netherlands. Prev. Vet. Med. 42, 219–234.
Stegeman, J.A., Elbers, A.R.W., Bouma, A., De Jong, M.C.M., 2002. Rate of inter-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus by different types of contact during the 1997–1998 epidemic in The Netherlands. Epidemiol. Infect. 128, 285–291.