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Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors

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Evans, N. M. and Smerdon, J. E. and Kaplan, A. and Tolwinski-Ward, S. E. and González Rouco, J. Fidel (2014) Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors. Geophysical research letters, 41 (24). pp. 9127-9134. ISSN 0094-8276

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1002/2014GL062063




Abstract

Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T + P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skill and spectral bias for the T + P and VSL-derived CFRs are similar to those previously shown using temperature-only pseudoproxies but demonstrate overall degraded skill and spectral bias for SAT reconstruction. Analysis of GMAT spectra nevertheless suggests that the true GMAT frequency spectrum is resolved by those pseudoproxies (T, T + P, and VSL) that contain some temperature information. The results suggest that mixed temperature and moisture-responding paleoclimate data may produce actual GMAT reconstructions with skill, error, and spectral characteristics like those expected from univariate and linear temperature responders, but spatially resolved CFR results should be analyzed cautiously


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© 2014 American Geophysical Union.
We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped improve this paper. Work was supported by grants NSF/ATM0902715 to M.N.E. and NSF/ATM0902436 to J.E.S. and A.K.; M.N.E. and J.E.S. also acknowledge support from NOAA grant NA10OAR431037. The pseudoproxies used in this study will be made available for further testing across different methodological applications at http://one.geol.umd.edu/ www/data/ and the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (http://www. ncdc.noaa.gov). Code for both VS-Lite and its environmental parameter estimation is available for download from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/ pub/data/paleo/softlib/vs-lite/). LDEO contribution 7844. The Editor thanks Scott St. George and an anonymous reviewer for their assistance in evaluating this paper.

Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Astrophysics
Sciences > Physics > Astronomy
ID Code:29249
Deposited On:18 Mar 2015 12:59
Last Modified:10 Dec 2018 15:05

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