Publication: Be-FAST and Be-CoDiS: mathematical models to predict the spread of human and livestocks diseases with real data. Application to the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic and livestock diseases
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Publication Date
2014-11-05
Authors
Ivorra, Benjamin
Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel
Fernández Carrión, Eduardo
Martínez López, Beatriz
Ngom, Diéne
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Abstract
During this presentation, we introduce the mathematical formulation of a new spatial-temporal epidemiological model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-COuntries Disease Spread). Be-CoDiS is based on the combination of an Individual-Based model (modelling the interaction between countries, considered as individuals) for the between-countries spread with a compartmental model, based on ordinary differential equations, for the within-country spread. The goal is to simulate the spread of a particular disease and identify the risk zones worldwide. This model is a particular adaptation of a previous epidemiological software, called Be-FAST, used to predict the spatial spread of livestock diseases. Both Be-FAST and Be-CoDiS models are detailed and some real applications, such as the study of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic or the Classical Swine Fever in Spain, are shown.
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