Publication: The role of the land-surface model for climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula
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2012-01-12
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American Geophysical Union
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Abstract
The importance of land-surface processes within Regional Climate Models for accurately reproducing the present-day climate is well known. However, their role when projecting future climate is still poorly reported. Hence, this work assesses the influence of the land-surface processes, particularly the contribution of soil moisture, when projecting future changes for temperature, precipitation and wind over a complex area as the Iberian Peninsula, which, in addition, shows great sensitivity to climate change. The main signals are found for the summer season, when the results indicate a strengthening in the increases projected for both mean temperature and temperature variability as a consequence of the future intensification of the positive soil moisture-temperature feedback. The more severe warming over the inner dry Iberian Peninsula further implies an intensification of the Iberian thermal low and, thus, of the cyclonic circulation. Furthermore, the land-atmosphere coupling leads to the projection of a wider future daily temperature range, since maximum temperatures are more affected than minima, a feature absent in non-coupled simulations. Regarding variability, the areas where the land-atmosphere coupling introduces larger changes are those where the reduction in the soil moisture content is more dramatic in future simulations, i.e., the so-called transitional zones. As regards precipitation, weaker positive signals for convective precipitation and more intense negative signals for non-convective precipitation are obtained as a result of the soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. These results highlight the crucial contribution of soil moisture to climate change projections and suggest its plausible key role for future projections of extreme events.
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Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union. This study received support from the Spanish Ministry of Environment (projects ESCENA, reference 20080050084265, and SALVA-SINOBAS), the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (project INVENTO-CGL2005-06966-C07-04/CLI), the Regional Agency for Science and Technology of Murcia (Fundación Séneca, reference 00619/PI/04) and the "Instituto Euromediterráneo del Agua". P. Jiménez Guerrero thanks the Ramón y Cajal Program of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. J. J. Gómez Navarro thanks the Spanish Ministry of Education for his Doctoral scholarship (AP2006-04100). Finally, the authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of anonymous reviewers which helped us to improve the quality and clarity of the manuscript.
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