Publication: Efectos de la legislación antitabaco en la prevalencia de fumadores jóvenes en España
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2017-06-09
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
The aim of this Thesis is to answer the question of whether the anti-tobacco law adopted by Spain in 2010, which in essence prohibited smoking in bars and restaurants, has managed to reduce tobacco consumption among teenagers. Answering this question is of paramount importance, given that the scarce evidence available on the effects of smoke-free-areas laws has been focused exclusively on the adult population, describing the ability of the law to achieve discontinuation, which is low, and overseeing its potential in preventing habit initiation and consolidation, both of which happen primarily during adolescence. This fact may mislead the regulator into the false impression that laws are being ineffectual, when they could indeed be effective, albeit exclusively to prevent habit initiation. In order to answer this question, an empirical study has been designed based on the data from the Estudes Survey, performed by the National Antidrug Plan. Surveys of students aged 14 to 18, from the years 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 have been used. The proposed model is a least-squares linear regression which includes a large number of control variables, such as gender, cohabitation with smokers, cash allowance and school performance; the historical trend already in motion in tobacco consumption and, logically, exposure to the law. Probit estimates have also been performed, showing results very similar to those of the linear model, and two robustness tests, one with years as dummy variables and another one splitting the model between older or younger than 16 years, which is the critical age for habit consolidation. Furthermore, the model is extended by gender and socioeconomic status. The effect of the law on cannabis consumption is also analyzed. The results show a clear causal effect of the law on tobacco experimentation, which falls as much as 5 percentage points; a fall in 4 points in daily smoking prevalence, and a decrease of 0,3 cigarettes per day in consumption intensity. As an indirect effect, the law also achieved a reduction in cannabis experimentation almost as large as that of tobacco, and a reduction in the frequency of consumption for this drug...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Derecho, Departamento de Economía Aplicada IV, leída el 16-12-2015