Publication: La COP21 y el Acuerdo de París: una clase magistral en diplomacia en busca de mayor ambición
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2016
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Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
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Muchos de los elementos clave que resultaron en el Acuerdo de Copenhague han evolucionado en los últimos seis años. Una mayor evidencia científica, un mayor desarrollo en el análisis económico relativo a las consecuencias del cambio climático, los avances tecnológicos, el desarrollo del sector energético renovable y las transformaciones en la gobernanza climática han posibilitado la adopción del Acuerdo de Paris. El presente artículo analiza algunos de estos factores, los resultados de la COP21 y los retos pendientes. El artículo concluye que el éxito diplomático que culminó en el Acuerdo de París dota al mundo de un nuevo marco global en la gobernanza climática que contiene elementos valiosos en la lucha contra el cambio climático. Sin embargo, los compromisos climáticos actuales llevarán a sobrepasar en aproximadamente un grado el objetivo de limitar el aumento medio de la temperatura global a 2ºC. Es necesario aumentar el grado de ambición. Nuestros esfuerzos de implementación tienen que comenzar sin dilación si hemos de evitar las peores consecuencias del cambio climático. La tarea pendiente es hercúlea ya que resolver el problema climático requiere la profunda transformación de los sistemas productivos y de consumo.
Many key elements that led to the Copenhagen Accord have evolved in the past six years. Increased scientific evidence, updated economic analysis on the consequences of climate change, technological advances, developments in the renewable energy sector and transformations in climate governance have created a narrow window of opportunity through which the Paris Agreement emerged. Some of these key changes, the results of COP21 and the challenges ahead are critically analysed. The analysis concludes that the diplomatic success that culminated in the adoption of the Paris Agreement provides the world with a new global climate governance framework that contains valuable elements in the fight against climate change. However, current mitigation commitments will overshoot the 2ºC limit by around one degree. Therefore more needs to be done and work has to start in earnest now if we are to avoid the worst consequences of a changing climate. The task at hand is herculean as solving the climate problem requires profoundly transforming productive systems and consumption patterns.
Many key elements that led to the Copenhagen Accord have evolved in the past six years. Increased scientific evidence, updated economic analysis on the consequences of climate change, technological advances, developments in the renewable energy sector and transformations in climate governance have created a narrow window of opportunity through which the Paris Agreement emerged. Some of these key changes, the results of COP21 and the challenges ahead are critically analysed. The analysis concludes that the diplomatic success that culminated in the adoption of the Paris Agreement provides the world with a new global climate governance framework that contains valuable elements in the fight against climate change. However, current mitigation commitments will overshoot the 2ºC limit by around one degree. Therefore more needs to be done and work has to start in earnest now if we are to avoid the worst consequences of a changing climate. The task at hand is herculean as solving the climate problem requires profoundly transforming productive systems and consumption patterns.
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Número monográfico: Los retos energéticos de la Unión Europea
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