Publication: Los fondos soberanos de inversión y su coordinación con políticas macroeconómicas: el caso de Noruega, 1990-2015
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2018-01-23
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
Esta tesis doctoral aborda la relación entre los problemas asociados a la inserción externa de las economías ricas en hidrocarburos y el uso de políticas públicas capaces de lidiar con las secuelas nocivas de la especialización en dichos recursos a través del estudio del sector petrolero y las políticas macroeconómicas de Noruega. Nuestro objetivo es determinar en qué medida la actuación del fondo soberano de inversión noruego coordinado con políticas fiscales y monetarias anticíclicas contribuyó a la mitigación de los ciclos económicos ocasionados por la volatilidad de los precios petroleros entre 1990 y 2015. La hipótesis de la tesis plantea que el funcionamiento del fondo soberano de inversión noruego, llamado Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), y la coordinación de las políticas monetaria y fiscal condujeron a un crecimiento económico sostenido y sin desequilibrios macroeconómicos destacables en Noruega durante el período comprendido entre 1990 y 2015, y especialmente entre 2001 y 2015, cuando quedó establecido el nexo entre el GPFG y los presupuestos fiscales mediante la regla fiscal del 4% y la política monetaria de metas de inflación y tipos de cambio flotantes. La metodología de investigación consiste en un estudio de caso. Las conclusiones principales de la tesis son: i) la economía noruega escapó de los efectos perjudiciales de la maldición de los recursos naturales; ii) la economía noruega sufrió numerosos choques externos entre 2000 y 2015 que plantearon retos para las políticas públicas, pero el crecimiento económico fue positivo y sostenido y el país presentó indicadores macroeconómicos prácticamente carentes de desequilibrios; iii) GPFG logró un crecimiento espectacular tanto mediante el ahorro de rentas petroleras, como a través de la rentabilidad de sus inversiones; iv) a parte de su capacidad de ahorro y de la conversión de la riqueza petrolera en activos diversificados, el GPFG también ha servido como fondo de estabilización durante períodos de debilidades económicas; v) en conjunto, las políticas monetaria y fiscal fueron fuertemente anticíclicas durante los períodos de debilidad económica de 2002-2003, 2008-2009 y desde verano de 2014; durante la etapa de auge de 2004-2007 y 2010-2011 las políticas actuaron de forma anticíclica; pero entre 2012 y verano de 2014 de manera procíclica debido a las debilidades de la regla fiscal; vi) por último, el establecimiento de un fondo soberano y su coordinación con las políticas fiscal y monetaria contracíclicas no son condiciones suficientes para proteger la economía de los síntomas de la enfermedad holandesa y del incremento de la dependencia del sector hidrocarburífero, aunque sí ayudan a suavizar los ciclos económicos y al ahorro para las generaciones futuras.
This thesis addresses the link between the macroeconomic challenges faced by oil exporting economies and the use of public policies meant to mitigate the harmful effects of the dependence on hydrocarbon exports through the study of the Norwegian case. The main goal is to determine to what extent the coordination between the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund and countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies contributed to the mitigation of economic cycles triggered out by oil price volatility between 1990 and 2015. Our hypothesis states that the performance of the sovereign wealth fund, known as Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), and its coordination with fiscal and monetary policies led to a sustained and positive economic growth without major macroeconomic imbalances in Norway between 1990 and 2015, particularly during the last fifteen years, when the link between the GPFG and the government budget was established through the fiscal rule in conjunction with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our methodology consists in a case study. The dissertation's main conclusions are the following: i) the Norwegian economy has escaped from the resource curse; ii) the Norwegian economy has gone through many external shocks between 2000 and 2015, but showed sustained and positive growth rates in conjunction with healthy macroeconomic indicators; iii) the GPFG achieved a spectacular growth by saving oil incomes and also through its investments' financial returns; iv) apart from its role as a savings fund for the intergenerational distribution of resource rent, the GPFG has also acted as a stabilization fund during times of economic weakness; v) monetary and fiscal policies have been strongly countercyclical during periods of economic weakness between 2002-2003, 2008-2009 and since the second half of 2014; acted jointly in a countercyclical mode throughout the economic upturn of 2004-2007 and 2010-2011; but procyclically between 2012 and the first half of 2014 due to the fiscal rule's flaws; vi) finally, the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund and its coordination with countercyclical macroeconomic policies are not enough to shield the whole economy from the effects of the Dutch disease, nor from the increasing dependence on the oil sector, although they do help to mitigate the Dutch disease's spending effect, smooth economic cycles and build up a savings cushion for future generations.
This thesis addresses the link between the macroeconomic challenges faced by oil exporting economies and the use of public policies meant to mitigate the harmful effects of the dependence on hydrocarbon exports through the study of the Norwegian case. The main goal is to determine to what extent the coordination between the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund and countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies contributed to the mitigation of economic cycles triggered out by oil price volatility between 1990 and 2015. Our hypothesis states that the performance of the sovereign wealth fund, known as Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), and its coordination with fiscal and monetary policies led to a sustained and positive economic growth without major macroeconomic imbalances in Norway between 1990 and 2015, particularly during the last fifteen years, when the link between the GPFG and the government budget was established through the fiscal rule in conjunction with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our methodology consists in a case study. The dissertation's main conclusions are the following: i) the Norwegian economy has escaped from the resource curse; ii) the Norwegian economy has gone through many external shocks between 2000 and 2015, but showed sustained and positive growth rates in conjunction with healthy macroeconomic indicators; iii) the GPFG achieved a spectacular growth by saving oil incomes and also through its investments' financial returns; iv) apart from its role as a savings fund for the intergenerational distribution of resource rent, the GPFG has also acted as a stabilization fund during times of economic weakness; v) monetary and fiscal policies have been strongly countercyclical during periods of economic weakness between 2002-2003, 2008-2009 and since the second half of 2014; acted jointly in a countercyclical mode throughout the economic upturn of 2004-2007 and 2010-2011; but procyclically between 2012 and the first half of 2014 due to the fiscal rule's flaws; vi) finally, the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund and its coordination with countercyclical macroeconomic policies are not enough to shield the whole economy from the effects of the Dutch disease, nor from the increasing dependence on the oil sector, although they do help to mitigate the Dutch disease's spending effect, smooth economic cycles and build up a savings cushion for future generations.
Description
Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada I (Economía Internacional y Desarrollo), leída el 22-09-2017