Publication: El video bajo demanda en televisión: test de causualidad de Granger en los ciclos de vida de un servicio de vídeo bajo demanda
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2018-05-23
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
La televisión por radiodifusión continúa manteniendo la posición privilegiada que ha tenido siempre como el más importante medio de comunicación de masas. Sin embargo, desde el advenimiento de la era digital y la irrupción de los nuevos servicios de vídeo OTT a través de Internet, basados en gran medida en modalidades de Vídeo Bajo Demanda, se están empezando a modificar los patrones tradicionales de consumo televisivo, y se están alterando profundamente las estructuras económicas y organizativas en las que se han desarrollado las Industrias Culturales audiovisuales desde finales de los años 70 del siglo XX. Esta tesis doctoral versa sobre el impacto que está suponiendo el VOD como nueva modalidad de explotación audiovisual a nivel de cadenas de valor, estructuras de los mercados, tecnologías y pautas de comportamiento de las audiencias, principalmente. Tras un repaso de la evolución trazada por estas industrias a lo largo de su historia, contrastando el tránsito de la era analógica a la digital, en la que el VOD es su exponente más avanzado, en sus capítulos finales se lleva a cabo una suerte de análisis prospectivo sobre la previsible evolución que cabe esperar para las citadas industrias en el corto y medio plazo. La ruptura de la linealidad del discurso televisivo tradicional a través del establecimiento del VOD como nuevo hábito para el consumo de bienes culturales audiovisuales trajo consigo una promesa de futuro de mayor diversidad cultural que lucha contra la ferocidad de los modelos de superventas dominantes. La explotación en forma de la puesta a disposición de catálogos de vídeo con múltiples formas de monetización (SVOD, TVOD, AVOD) ahonda en el ardiente debate sobre la acelerada mercantilización de la cultura, y encuentra enfrentadas posiciones acerca de los paradigmas axiomáticos de la economía digital o de Internet. Este trabajo académico culmina con un repaso de las distintas interpretaciones que se han llevado a cabo en relación con la teoría de la larga cola, aplicado al caso práctico de un gran operador de VOD que opera una combinación de servicios de SVOD y TVOD, del cual se extrajo una base de datos de consumos de VOD que cubrió un periodo de casi 9 años. Ese largo lapso temporal se dividió en tres etapas, siguiendo la teoría del ciclo de vida de un producto, y se ha llevado a cabo un análisis de causalidad aplicando el Test de Granger para determinar la relación explicativa existente entre la oferta y la demanda en cada una de esas etapas del ciclo de vida del servicio, que permite identificar una relación de causalidad diferente en cada una. En la fase de lanzamiento la oferta es claramente la variable dominante, mientras que en la de crecimiento la explicación es mutua, y en la última, la de madurez, el vector principal es la demanda. Estas conclusiones aportan útiles recomendaciones de negocio para lograr eficiencias en las inversiones de compra de derechos de propiedad intelectual y tecnología.
Broadcast TV still defends its privileged status in the mass media. However, since the opening of the Digital Era and Internet, which allowed the emergence of the OTT services and mostly based on Video On Demand (VOD) functionalities, we are realizing a new brand of audiovisual consumption patterns and severe changes on the old-style economic and organizational foundations of the audiovisual Cultural Industries, as they have been known since the 70’s decade. This thesis gives a dissertation on the impact that the VOD is causing mainly into the audiovisual value chain, market structure, technologies and viewing forms. This is framed with a historical perspective, contrasting the gap between the analogue and digital era, where the VOD sits in the forefront, and finalizes with a prospective analysis of what can be expected in the mid and short term for the audiovisual Cultural Industries. VOD broke the lineal discourse of TV and became an innovative driving audiovisual habit use which brought along renewed opportunities for cultural diversity against the blockbusters tyranny. For several years, as the audiovisual expression of the digital economy, VOD became part of fiery public debates defending and opposing the popular long tail model in the Internet economy. The different declinations of VOD (SVOD, TVOD, AVOD) to monetize the audiovisual cultural goods also caused many critics because of how aggressive they could become commoditized and the lack of attention to protect cultural diversities despite the alleged opportunities raised by the long tail. This dissertation ends with a review of the diverse academic opinions around the long tail paradigm which is applied to a practical case of a large VOD operator that manages a combination of SVOD and TVOD services. We extracted a huge database of views/buys of almost 9 years which was split into three differentiated stages of a typical product lifecycle. We made a causality Granger Test to understand the causal relationships between offer and demand in each lifecycle stage, demonstrating different conclusions per phase. During the launch period the driving variable is the offer, while during the growing stage both variables explain each other and in the maturity stage is the demand which explains the offer. These conclusions suggest very interesting business recommendations to make more efficient decisions on rights acquisition and technological investments.
Broadcast TV still defends its privileged status in the mass media. However, since the opening of the Digital Era and Internet, which allowed the emergence of the OTT services and mostly based on Video On Demand (VOD) functionalities, we are realizing a new brand of audiovisual consumption patterns and severe changes on the old-style economic and organizational foundations of the audiovisual Cultural Industries, as they have been known since the 70’s decade. This thesis gives a dissertation on the impact that the VOD is causing mainly into the audiovisual value chain, market structure, technologies and viewing forms. This is framed with a historical perspective, contrasting the gap between the analogue and digital era, where the VOD sits in the forefront, and finalizes with a prospective analysis of what can be expected in the mid and short term for the audiovisual Cultural Industries. VOD broke the lineal discourse of TV and became an innovative driving audiovisual habit use which brought along renewed opportunities for cultural diversity against the blockbusters tyranny. For several years, as the audiovisual expression of the digital economy, VOD became part of fiery public debates defending and opposing the popular long tail model in the Internet economy. The different declinations of VOD (SVOD, TVOD, AVOD) to monetize the audiovisual cultural goods also caused many critics because of how aggressive they could become commoditized and the lack of attention to protect cultural diversities despite the alleged opportunities raised by the long tail. This dissertation ends with a review of the diverse academic opinions around the long tail paradigm which is applied to a practical case of a large VOD operator that manages a combination of SVOD and TVOD services. We extracted a huge database of views/buys of almost 9 years which was split into three differentiated stages of a typical product lifecycle. We made a causality Granger Test to understand the causal relationships between offer and demand in each lifecycle stage, demonstrating different conclusions per phase. During the launch period the driving variable is the offer, while during the growing stage both variables explain each other and in the maturity stage is the demand which explains the offer. These conclusions suggest very interesting business recommendations to make more efficient decisions on rights acquisition and technological investments.
Description
Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias de la Información, Departamento de Comunicación Audiovisual y Publicidad I, leída el 29/06/2017