Publication: La dualización del mercado laboral y su impacto en economías avanzadas. Un análisis comparado a partir de los casos francés y británico
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2018
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Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
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Abstract
El efecto de la dualización en el desempleo ha sido destacado por numerosos analistas y ha inspirado reformas de calado en prácticamente todas las economías avanzadas. Una de ellas ha sido la economía francesa, cuyos gobiernos, particularmente en los últimos años, han promovido medidas liberalizadoras con el objetivo de reducir las rigideces del mercado laboral, mejorar el diálogo social y, de este modo, reducir la alta tasa de desempleo que padece el país galo. Su caso contrasta con el de Reino Unido, que exhibe las tasas de desempleo más bajas desde los años 70 y que es considerada a menudo un modelo de mercado laboral flexible, apartado de sesgos dualistas. Este trabajo trata de someter a comprobación la hipótesis de la dualización a partir de ambos casos y sin perder la referencia del conjunto de economías avanzadas. Para ello, en primer lugar, se propone una caracterización del proceso de dualización desde un marco de economía política, determinando aquellos indicadores que permitan la comparación internacional. En segundo lugar, se compara el proceso de dualización en Francia, Reino Unido y el conjunto de las economías avanzadas. Por último, a partir de un sencillo modelo NAIRU y su especificación econométrica, se trata de aproximar el impacto de la dualización en el desempleo. El estudio se sirve de un análisis descriptivo y técnicas econométricas (estimación de modelos con datos STSC) para concluir que la dualización es un proceso de cambio institucional común a todas las economías avanzadas, que en algunos aspectos es más acentuado en el caso británico que en el francés y cuyo impacto directo en el desempleo es cuestionable.
The effect of dualization on unemployment has been emphasized by many analysts and has inspired deep reforms in almost every single advanced economy. One of these has been the French economy, whose governments promoted liberal measures with the objective of reducing labour market rigidities, improving social dialogue and bring unemployment down. United Kingdom represents an extremely different case: it has the lowest unemployment rates since the 1970´s and it is considered a model of flexible labour market, far from dualist bias. Comparing both cases with rest of advanced economies, this study try to test the dualization hypothesis. To accomplish this task, firstly, it is proposed a characterization of the dualization process from a political economy framework. Secondly, we compare the dualization process in France, United Kingdom and the rest of advanced economies. Finally, we estimate the impact of dualization on unemployment using a simple NAIRU model. The study uses descriptive analysis and econometric techniques (estimation of TSCS models) to conclude three points. First, the dualization is a process of institutional change shared by all the advanced economies. Second, in certain aspects, the British labour market is more dualized than the French one. Third, the dualization has an ambiguous impact on unemployment.
The effect of dualization on unemployment has been emphasized by many analysts and has inspired deep reforms in almost every single advanced economy. One of these has been the French economy, whose governments promoted liberal measures with the objective of reducing labour market rigidities, improving social dialogue and bring unemployment down. United Kingdom represents an extremely different case: it has the lowest unemployment rates since the 1970´s and it is considered a model of flexible labour market, far from dualist bias. Comparing both cases with rest of advanced economies, this study try to test the dualization hypothesis. To accomplish this task, firstly, it is proposed a characterization of the dualization process from a political economy framework. Secondly, we compare the dualization process in France, United Kingdom and the rest of advanced economies. Finally, we estimate the impact of dualization on unemployment using a simple NAIRU model. The study uses descriptive analysis and econometric techniques (estimation of TSCS models) to conclude three points. First, the dualization is a process of institutional change shared by all the advanced economies. Second, in certain aspects, the British labour market is more dualized than the French one. Third, the dualization has an ambiguous impact on unemployment.
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Este trabajo forma parte de un proyecto investigador que cuenta con el soporte financiero de la Universidad Complutense y el Banco Santander, a través del programa de becas predoctorales Santander-UCM.
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