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Predicting the spread of epidemiological diseases by using a multi-objective algorithm

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Fernández, M. R. and Ivorra, Benjamín and Redondo, J. L. and Ramos, A. M. and Ortigosa, P. M. (2019) Predicting the spread of epidemiological diseases by using a multi-objective algorithm. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2070 . 020016-1. ISSN 0094-243X

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5089983




Abstract

The epidemiological models are able to predict the spread of diseases, but a previous work on calibrating some involved parameters must be done. In this work, we propose a methodology to adjust those parameters based on solving a multi-objective optimization problem whose objective functions measure the accuracy of the model. More precisely, we have considered the Between-Countries Disease Spread model because it involves a set of countries taking into account the migratory movements among them. As a result, using some real data about the number of detected cases and the number of deaths for the Ebola virus
disease, we have shown that the methodology is able to find a set of values for the parameters so that the model fits the outbreak spread for a set of countries.


Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Modelos matemáticos, Epidemiología
Palabras clave (otros idiomas):Optimization problems, Mathematical models, Epidemiology
Subjects:Sciences > Mathematics
ID Code:54655
Deposited On:12 Mar 2019 12:14
Last Modified:08 May 2019 13:42

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