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Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain

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Martín Arias, Javier and Martínez Santos, Pedro and Andreo, Bartolomé (2020) Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain. Journal of Environmental Management, 262 (11031). ISSN 0301-4797, ESSN: 1095-8630

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720302516



Abstract

Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.


Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Groundwater model, Processing modflow´Climate change, Future scenarios, Karstic aquifer, Fisurated flow system
Subjects:Sciences > Geology > Hidrology
ID Code:59713
Deposited On:24 Mar 2020 18:40
Last Modified:25 Mar 2020 07:56

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