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Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies

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Latorre Muñoz, María Concepción and Olekseyuk, Z. and Yonezawa, H. and Robinson, S. (2020) Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies. Economic Modelling, 89 . pp. 72-87. ISSN 0264-9993

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318316304



Abstract

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6 to 7.8, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.


Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Economic methodology; CGE models; Economic simulation; Foreign trade; Migration; Multinationals.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Commerce
Social sciences > Economics > Macroeconomics
JEL:B41, C63, C68, F17, F23, F21
ID Code:60933
Deposited On:15 Jun 2020 11:54
Last Modified:15 Jun 2020 12:19

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