Universidad Complutense de Madrid
E-Prints Complutense

Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: a scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

Impacto

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Zúñiga-Upegui, P. and Arnaiz-Schmitz, C. and Herrero-Jáuregui, Cristina and Smart, Simon Mark and López-Santiago, C.A. and Schmitz García, María Fe (2019) Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: a scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region. Science of the Total Environment, 695 (133874). pp. 1-15. ISSN 1879-1026

[img] PDF
Restringido a Repository staff only

3MB

Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969719338240?via%3Dihub



Abstract

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systemswhere naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.


Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:land planning, scenario-based approach, peacebuilding process, warfare ecology, post-conflict society
Subjects:Medical sciences > Biology > Ecology
Social sciences > Political science > War
ID Code:62172
Deposited On:16 Sep 2020 16:11
Last Modified:16 Sep 2020 16:11

Origin of downloads

Repository Staff Only: item control page