Publication: Convergencia real en Europa Central y del Este: un análisis del período 1950-2008
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2010
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Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
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Este trabajo contrasta la hipótesis de convergencia en PIB per capita durante el período 1950-2008 para una muestra de países de Europa Central y del Este, utilizando técnicas de series temporales. La aplicación de los contrastes de raíces unitarias indica que ha habido convergencia real entre los países de la región, aunque no cuando definimos la convergencia respecto a Alemania, país de referencia de la Unión Europea. Sin embargo, cuando permitimos la existencia de cambios estructurales, se observa un proceso de acercamiento de algunos países (Albania, Bulgaria y la antigua Checoslovaquia) respecto a Alemania desde los años 90, sugiriendo que los cambios ocurridos en estos países desde esa década han afectado positivamente a la convergencia.
This article examines the real convergence hypothesis for the period 1950-2008 in some Central and Eastern European countries using time series techniques and allowing for structural breaks. We find convergence within the countries when applying unit root tests on per capita GNP differences, but not when per capita GNP differences are defined with respect to Germany, the point of reference for the EU. However, when we allow for the existence of structural breaks in the convergence process, we find evidence of some countries (Albania, Bulgaria, former Czechoslovakia) catching-up with the German economy since the nineties. This suggests that the changes taking place since then in those countries have had a positive impact on convergence.
This article examines the real convergence hypothesis for the period 1950-2008 in some Central and Eastern European countries using time series techniques and allowing for structural breaks. We find convergence within the countries when applying unit root tests on per capita GNP differences, but not when per capita GNP differences are defined with respect to Germany, the point of reference for the EU. However, when we allow for the existence of structural breaks in the convergence process, we find evidence of some countries (Albania, Bulgaria, former Czechoslovakia) catching-up with the German economy since the nineties. This suggests that the changes taking place since then in those countries have had a positive impact on convergence.
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