Publication: Las causas del apoyo electoral a VOX en España
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2020
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
El análisis busca comprender las razones por las que un 15% de votantes decidió apoyar a VOX el 10 de noviembre de 2019. Se abordan los condicionantes previos a la emergencia de dicho partido. Se estudia la evolución de su intención de voto y su relación con la cadena de hechos significativos acontecidos durante 2018 y 2019. La preocupación por el secesionismo catalán es el principal detonante de este despegue. Finalmente se presenta un análisis de encuesta para explicar las razones y características asociadas a VOX. Se comprueba que la variable explicativa principal es la autoubicación en la escala izquierda derecha. Siguen en un segundo plano de importancia la preocupación por el secesionismo catalán, la edad (por el peso del voto joven) y el autoritarismo. En un tercer plano de importancia se destaca también la importancia explicativa de la inmigración, ser varón, identificarse como nacionalista (español), sentirse español, el pesimismo ante la situación política y económica, y la salida de los restos mortales de Franco del Valle de los Caídos. Desde la comparativa con otros partidos de derechas, se halló que las sensibilidades son compartidas con otros votantes de derecha, pero más acentuadas y radicales. Lo que principalmente les diferencia es, en este orden: edad (juventud), autoritarismo, preocupación por la inmigración y mayor conservadurismo.
The analysis aims to understand the reasons why 15% of voters decided to support VOX on November 10, 2019. The main conditions to the emergence of said party are addressed. The evolution of their intention to vote and their relationship with the chain of significant events that occurred during 2018 and 2019, resulting in the concern for Catalan secessionism being the main trigger for take-off. Finally, a survey analysis is presented to explain the reasons and characteristics associated with VOX. It is found that the main explanatory variable is in self-placement on the left-right scale. Concerns about Catalan secessionism, age (due to the weight of the young vote) and authoritarianism remain in the background. On a third level of importance, the explanatory importance of immigration, being male, identifying oneself as a nationalist, having a Spanish feeling, pessimism about the political and economic situation, and the departure of Franco’s bones from Valley of the Fallen. From the comparison with other right-wing parties, it was found that the sensitivities are shared with other right-wing voters but more pronounced and radical. What mainly differentiates them is, in this order: age (youth), authoritarianism, concern for immigration, and higher score on the left-right scale.
The analysis aims to understand the reasons why 15% of voters decided to support VOX on November 10, 2019. The main conditions to the emergence of said party are addressed. The evolution of their intention to vote and their relationship with the chain of significant events that occurred during 2018 and 2019, resulting in the concern for Catalan secessionism being the main trigger for take-off. Finally, a survey analysis is presented to explain the reasons and characteristics associated with VOX. It is found that the main explanatory variable is in self-placement on the left-right scale. Concerns about Catalan secessionism, age (due to the weight of the young vote) and authoritarianism remain in the background. On a third level of importance, the explanatory importance of immigration, being male, identifying oneself as a nationalist, having a Spanish feeling, pessimism about the political and economic situation, and the departure of Franco’s bones from Valley of the Fallen. From the comparison with other right-wing parties, it was found that the sensitivities are shared with other right-wing voters but more pronounced and radical. What mainly differentiates them is, in this order: age (youth), authoritarianism, concern for immigration, and higher score on the left-right scale.