Publication: El no tan nuevo espíritu del predictivismo: de la estadística moderna al big data
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2020
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Universitat de Barcelona: Observatori del Sistema Penal i els Drets Humans, OSPDH
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Abstract
El mundo moderno se funda en una serie de marcos epistemológicos e ideas-fuerza sobre los que destaca el control de la incertidumbre desde la ciencia y la posibilidad de anticipar el futuro a través de la predicción. La racionalidad que va tomando cuerpo a partir del pensamiento científico moderno hace un especial hincapié en la gestión de lo azaroso e indeterminado (la administración de la “ambivalencia” dirá Bauman como elemento constitutivo de lo moderno) cuya materialización concreta son dispositivos para calcular, estimar o predecir. Más en concreto, disciplinas como la Estadística moderna van a permitir realizar estas operaciones sobre grandes poblaciones. Es el caso de algunos autores sugerentes: prevenir el delito, Quetelet o prevenir el suicidio, Durkheim. Para estos teóricos, la novedad es que la realidad (natural, social, etc.) y su evolución puede ser apropiada desde estos dispositivos matemáticos facilitando su manejo político (biopolítica). Desde la “Política de los grandes números” (Desrosières) de la Estadística moderna hasta la supercomputación global subyace invisible el mismo vector predictivo y la ilusión de anticipar los comportamientos. El Big Data actual conlleva igualmente una promesa neopositivista de estimación extrema sobre un magma de datos naturales o sociales. En este caso, no será la precisión o el cómputo nítido sino el enorme volumen de bits lo que garantizará, por puro cuantitativismo apabullante, anticiparse a los futuros sociales y sus comportamientos desviados. En este artículo planteamos que el paralelismo es más que evidente entre una época y otra.
The modern world is based on a series of epistemological frameworks and key ideas on which the control of uncertainty from science and the possibility of anticipating the future through prediction stand out. The rationality that is taking shape from modern scientific thinking places special emphasis on the management of the random and indeterminate (the administration of "ambivalence" will say Bauman as a constitutive element of the modern) whose concrete materialization are devices to calculate, estimate or predict. More specifically, disciplines such as modern statistics will allow these operations to be carried out on large populations. It is the case of some suggestive authors: prevent crime, Quetelet or prevent suicide, Durkheim. For these theorists, the novelty is that reality (natural, social, etc.) and its evolution may be appropriate from these mathematical devices facilitating their political (biopolitical) management. From the “Politics of large numbers” (Desrosières) of modern Statistics to global supercomputing, the same predictive vector and the illusion of anticipating behaviours are invisible. The current Big Data also carries a neopositivist promise of extreme estimation on a magma of natural or social data. In this case, it will not be the precision or the clear computation but the enormous volume of bits that will guarantee, by pure overwhelming quantitativeness, to anticipate the social futures and their deviant behaviours. In this article we propose that the parallelism is more than evident between one era and another.
The modern world is based on a series of epistemological frameworks and key ideas on which the control of uncertainty from science and the possibility of anticipating the future through prediction stand out. The rationality that is taking shape from modern scientific thinking places special emphasis on the management of the random and indeterminate (the administration of "ambivalence" will say Bauman as a constitutive element of the modern) whose concrete materialization are devices to calculate, estimate or predict. More specifically, disciplines such as modern statistics will allow these operations to be carried out on large populations. It is the case of some suggestive authors: prevent crime, Quetelet or prevent suicide, Durkheim. For these theorists, the novelty is that reality (natural, social, etc.) and its evolution may be appropriate from these mathematical devices facilitating their political (biopolitical) management. From the “Politics of large numbers” (Desrosières) of modern Statistics to global supercomputing, the same predictive vector and the illusion of anticipating behaviours are invisible. The current Big Data also carries a neopositivist promise of extreme estimation on a magma of natural or social data. In this case, it will not be the precision or the clear computation but the enormous volume of bits that will guarantee, by pure overwhelming quantitativeness, to anticipate the social futures and their deviant behaviours. In this article we propose that the parallelism is more than evident between one era and another.