Publication: Modelos epidemiológicos con retransmisión retardada
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2021-07-23
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La epidemiología es un campo científico interdisciplinar que se encarga del estudio de los procesos de transmisión de una enfermedad en una población. El interés en este campo científico interdisciplinar surgió por la cantidad de personas que fallecían por enfermedades infecciosas y sigue cobrando mucho interés debido a factores como la globalización, la aparición de nuevas enfermedades infecciosas, etc. Las Matemáticas, y en concreto la modelización y simulación, juegan un papel fundamental en esta disciplina ya que, entre otras cosas, ayuda a tomar medidas preventivas objetivas para la disminución de los efectos de una posible epidemia. En este trabajo vamos a analizar una generalización del modelo clásico de Kermack-McKendrick con retransmisión retardada que puede dar lugar a ondas periódicas cuando la transmisión es suficientemente alta. La retransmisión retardada se debe a la incorporación en el modelo de la movilidad de los individuos durante el periodo latente de la enfermedad.
Epidemiology is an interdisciplinary scientific field that studies the processes related to illness transmition in a population. The interest in this interdisciplinary scientific field arosed from the remarkable quantity of deaths due to infectious diseases. Nowadays, it continuous being important due to globalisation, appearance of new diseases, etc. Mathematics, specifically modelling and simulation, plays a vital role in this discipline because, among other things, it helps to take objective preventive measures to reduce the effects that a possible epidemic might cause. In this end-of-degree project, we analise the classic model of Kermack-McKendrick with retarded transmition that can lead to periodic waves when transmition is high enough. The retarded transmission is due to its incorporation in the individuals mobility model during the latent period of the disease.
Epidemiology is an interdisciplinary scientific field that studies the processes related to illness transmition in a population. The interest in this interdisciplinary scientific field arosed from the remarkable quantity of deaths due to infectious diseases. Nowadays, it continuous being important due to globalisation, appearance of new diseases, etc. Mathematics, specifically modelling and simulation, plays a vital role in this discipline because, among other things, it helps to take objective preventive measures to reduce the effects that a possible epidemic might cause. In this end-of-degree project, we analise the classic model of Kermack-McKendrick with retarded transmition that can lead to periodic waves when transmition is high enough. The retarded transmission is due to its incorporation in the individuals mobility model during the latent period of the disease.
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