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A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets

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Novales Cinca, Alfonso and Domínguez, Emilio (2002) A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets. [ Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 24, 2002, ]

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Official URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/7683/


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Abstract

This paper departs from previous research in dealing with dimensionality reduction in the space of
international term structure slopes. Recent empirical work has documented the existence of information in
the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activity, and it is
additional to information in past economic activity, inflation, or in any leading indicator index [see
Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Stock and Watson (1988), Hardouvelis (1994) and Plosser and
Rouwenhorst (1994), among others]. This implies that a good forecasting model of term structure slopes
could be helpful to anticipate changes in economic activity with an even longer anticipation.


Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Term structure of interest rates, Term structure slope, Principal components, Eurocurrencies
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > Stock exchanges
JEL:E37, E43
Series Name:Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
Volume:2002
Number:24
ID Code:7683
Deposited On:04 Mar 2008
Last Modified:21 Jun 2017 11:33

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