Publication: Fases del Crecimiento Económico de los Países de la Unión Europea – 15
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2005
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Abstract
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el intervalo 1994-2003 dentro del tramo descendente del movimiento cíclico de largo plazo de las economías europeas. Dado que la dinámica económica describe una trayectoria irregular, los intervalos de tiempo en los que se estudia esa dinámica no pueden ser discrecionales sino que deben ajustarse a criterios metodológicos bien definidos. En virtud de ello, primero se establecen los criterios con los que se delimitan los periodos comprendidos entre 1950 y 2004, y se muestran los rasgos que diferencian a los dos tramos del ciclo. Después se clasifican las fases de expansión y recesión que se alternan desde 1974 y, en esa sucesión, se concreta 1994 2004 como un periodo cíclico formado por una fase de expansión y otra de recesión. Por último, se explican las pruebas realizadas con cuatro variables relacionadas con los beneficios empresariales que muestran cómo su evolución expresa de forma representativa la trayectoria cíclica de la dinámica económica.
The main purpose of this work is to analyse the period 1994-2003 within the descendent wave of the long run cyclical movement of the European economies. Given that economic dynamics follows an irregular path, time intervals cannot be based on discretional criteria but they ought to be adjusted following a well-defined methodology. Therefore, first of all this work explains the methodological parameters which have been used to establish the different benchmark periods within 1950 and 2003, stressing the distinctive features of both main waves of this long run cycle. Afterwards, the article classifies the different phases of expansion and recession that have alternately happened since 1974, focusing on the analysis on the most recent period, 1994-2003, as a cyclical phase consisting of both an upturn and a downturn. Finally, the author examines the results of testing four different variables of companies’ profits as a good indicator of the cyclical path of the dynamics of the economy.
The main purpose of this work is to analyse the period 1994-2003 within the descendent wave of the long run cyclical movement of the European economies. Given that economic dynamics follows an irregular path, time intervals cannot be based on discretional criteria but they ought to be adjusted following a well-defined methodology. Therefore, first of all this work explains the methodological parameters which have been used to establish the different benchmark periods within 1950 and 2003, stressing the distinctive features of both main waves of this long run cycle. Afterwards, the article classifies the different phases of expansion and recession that have alternately happened since 1974, focusing on the analysis on the most recent period, 1994-2003, as a cyclical phase consisting of both an upturn and a downturn. Finally, the author examines the results of testing four different variables of companies’ profits as a good indicator of the cyclical path of the dynamics of the economy.