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Facteurs inertiels et effect de sentier ("path dependency") dans l'analyse théorique de la transition.

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1996-11
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Decanato
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Este trabajo plantea la necesidad de reflexionar sobre la validez de las estrategias de transformación aplicadas en los países del Este. Según la concepción dominante al comienzo de la transición, la determinación de un objetivo -la construcción de una economía de mercado similar a la que funciona en las economías occidentales-, la existencia de una decidida voluntad política para alcanzar ese objetivo y el desmantelamiento del sistema administrativo, garantizaban la irreversibilidad y el éxito de las reformas. Pero los resultados económicos cosechados desde finales de la década de los ochenta cuestionan la pertinencia de aquellas propuestas. El ritmo con el que se han introducido las reformas fundamentales ha sido más lento que lo que preveían los gobiernos de estos países y sus asesores, al tiempo que han aparecido numerosas y significativas "anomalías", trayectorias que no habían sido contempladas por los arquitectos del cambio sistémico. Para el autor, el fracaso de las teorías convencionales obliga a una reformulación teórica de los procesos de transición, que los examine desde su inevitable complejidad. En este contexto, uno de los aspectos que han sido infravalorados por aquellas teorías es la influencia de la herencia legada por los sistemas administrativos. Esta herencia, y las consiguientes inercias, determinan tanto los ritmos como, también, los propios contenidos del cambio económico y político. Con esta perspectiva, Wladimir Andreff examina las principales aportaciones analíticas, y los límites, que se derivan de considerar el "efecto sendero".
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