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Testing theories of economic fluctuations and growth in early development. (The case of the Chesapeake tobacco economy)

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1993
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
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This paper suggests a general econometric approach to the empirical testing of the staple theory. The methodology is based upon a multivariate stochastic time series analysis adjusted to accommodate the presence of co-integration. Consistent with the nature of the problem under consideration, the methodology does not require any a priori strucrural assumptions about the dynamic relations among relevant variables. The empirical part of the paper focuses on the dynamic relationships among tobacco prices in the colonial Chesapeake economy and tobacco demand and supply conditions. The empirical evidence gives strong support to the basic tenets of the staple theory: the central role of the exogenous British demand; the existence of fluctuations in the price of tobacco; and, the high responsiveness of tobacco production with respect to prices relative to tobacco demand.
Este artículo sugiere un enfoque econométrico general, al problema empírico de contrastación de la teoría de la cosecha. La metodología se basa en el análisis multivariante de series temporales, adaptado para tratar adecuadamente la presencia de cointegración. Consistente con la naturaleza del problema en cuestión, la metodología no requiere supuestos estructurales a priori acerca de las relaciones dinámicas entre las variables relevantes. La parte empírica del artículo se concentra en las relaciones dinámicas entre los precios del tabaco, en la economía colonial del Chesapeake, y las condiciones de demanda y oferta. La evidencia empírica apoya las tesis básicas de la teoría de la cosecha: El papel central y exógeno de la demanda británica de tabaco, la existencia de fluctuaciones en el precio del tabaco y la alta sensibilidad a los precios de la producción frente a la demanda de tabaco.
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Econometría (Economía)
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5302 Econometría
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