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Mathematical modeling for real epidemics situations. The case of classical swine fever virus



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Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel and Ivorra, Benjamin and Martínez López, Beatriz and Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel (2011) Mathematical modeling for real epidemics situations. The case of classical swine fever virus. In Programa y resúmenes XXII CEDYA, XXII Congreso de Ecuaciones Diferenciales y Aplicaciones, XII CMA, XII Congreso de Matemática Aplicada, Palma de Mallorca, 5-9 septiembre de 2011. Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, pp. 1-15. ISBN 978-84-694-4935-6

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Official URL: http://www.uibcongres.org/congresos/ponencia.es.html?cc=194&mes=56&ordpon=5


In this work, we describe a model to simulate the spread of withinand between- farms transmission of Classical swine fever virus (CSFV). It is a spatial hybrid model, based on the combination of a stochastic individual based model for between-farm spread with a Susceptible-Infected model for within- farm spread. An important characteristic of this model is the use, as an input, of the information available in real databases. The aim of this model is to quantify the magnitude, duration and risk zones of potential CSFV epidemics to provide support for the decision making process in future CSFV outbreaks. Model parameters and assumptions are provided and an illustration of the model’s results is performed by using available data from the Spanish region of Segovia. The outputs are also compared with those given by another model.

Item Type:Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords:Epidemiological modeling; Individual Based model; Risk Analysis; Classical Swine Fever
Subjects:Sciences > Mathematics > Operations research
Medical sciences > Veterinary > Swine
ID Code:30900
Deposited On:17 Jun 2015 08:09
Last Modified:12 Dec 2018 15:07

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