Publication: Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years
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2005-04-27
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American Geophysical Union
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Abstract
The spatial patterns of surface air-temperature variations in the period 1000 to 2100, simulated with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean coupled model, are analyzed. The model was driven by solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing. The leading mode of temperature variability in the preindustrial period represents an almost global coherent variation of temperatures, with larger amplitudes over the continents and Northern Hemisphere. This mode also describes a large part of the spatial structure of the warming simulated in the 21st century. However, in the 21st century, regional departures from this spatial structure are also present and can be ascribed to atmospheric circulation responses to anthropogenic forcing in the last decades of the 21st century.
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Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union. We thank the two reviewers and Drs. D. Bray, J. Luterbacher, M. Montoya and E. Xoplaki for their comments and proof reading of this manuscript. This work was partially funded by the DEKLIM Program of the German BMBF, the EU project SO&P and by the project REN-2000-0786Cli of the Spanish CICYT.
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