Publication: Decisiones de inversión en el sertor vitivinícola de las Rías Baixas: Análisis mediante opciones reales
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2016
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Abstract
En este estudio analiza las decisiones de inversión de un proyecto vitivinícola, es decir, un viñedo, bajo dos variables con incertidumbre, producción y precio. La valoración mediante opciones reales identifica los niveles óptimos de ingresos para la entrada y salida al negocio considerando factores económicos como costes hundidos y de estructura, economías de escala, volatilidad de precio y producción y valor deliquidación. Los resultados obtenidos explican el lento ajuste de la producción de vino a la demanda del sector de las Rías Baixas. Asimismo, se discute como las características de la región hacen que el tamaño de la zona histéresis lleve a los cultivadores a esperar en lugar de ejercer la opción de entrada o salida.
This paper analyzes the investment decisions in a vineyard project under yield and price uncertainty. Real-option valuation identifies the optimal revenue levels for business entry and exit, taking into account economic factors, such as sunk and structure costs, economies of scale, price and yield volatility and salvaged asset valuation. The results achieved explain the slow adjustment between the grape production and grape demand in the Rías Baixas industry. Furthermore, the analysis focuses on how the region peculiarities influence the size of the hysteresis area, which helps to explain why growers wait instead of exercising their option to enter or exit the business.
This paper analyzes the investment decisions in a vineyard project under yield and price uncertainty. Real-option valuation identifies the optimal revenue levels for business entry and exit, taking into account economic factors, such as sunk and structure costs, economies of scale, price and yield volatility and salvaged asset valuation. The results achieved explain the slow adjustment between the grape production and grape demand in the Rías Baixas industry. Furthermore, the analysis focuses on how the region peculiarities influence the size of the hysteresis area, which helps to explain why growers wait instead of exercising their option to enter or exit the business.
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