Publication: Uniones monetarias incompletas y crisis de deuda soberana: el caso de España
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2017-01-12
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
Esta tesis doctoral analiza el papel de la UEM en la formación de la burbuja crediticia en España, en su estallido y en su transformación en una crisis de deuda bancaria, en primera instancia y, posteriormente, en una crisis de deuda soberana. Para ello se plantean dos hipótesis principales. La primera, que la creación de la UEM fue un factor determinante en la formación de la burbuja inmobiliaria en España, cuyo estallido derivó en una profunda crisis financiera a partir del año 2008. En este sentido, los datos aportados indican que la instauración de la moneda única produjo una convergencia acelerada de los tipos de interés pagados por los agentes privados de las economías de la zona euro. En el caso particular de España, los análisis llevados a cabo revelan la existencia de una relación exponencial entre esta bajada de los tipos y el aumento del crédito. Se muestra, además, cómo el incremento de la financiación disponible no tuvo un reflejo igual en todos los sectores de la economía española, siendo el residencial el que creció de manera más significativa, lo que fue posible gracias al papel de la UEM en la rápida integración de los mercados financieros. Para respaldar esta afirmación se presentan datos que revelan el desarrollo de los productos de financiación estructurada en el seno de la moneda única, y su papel en el aumento del crédito y, en particular, en el crecimiento de la financiación a particulares para la compra de vivienda. En este escenario de fuerte dependencia de los mercados de capitales se produjo una interrupción brusca de los mismos, lo que permite plantear la segunda de las hipótesis...
The aim of this PhD dissertation is to analyze the role of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the Spanish’s credit bubble built up, in its burst and in its transformation into a financial debt crisis, at first, and lastly into a debt sovereign crisis. To do so, the PhD lays out two hypotheses. The first one is that the UEM was a driving factor in the real estate boom in Spain, which burst derived in a deep financial crisis since 2008. The dataset presented in the paper indicates that the single currency caused a rapid convergence of interest rates paid by the private sectors of the European economies. In the case of Spain, the analysis reveals the existence of an exponential relationship between interest rates fall and the increase of outstanding credit. It also reveals that cheaper funding didn’t have an equal impact on every sector of the Spanish economy, being the residential one where indebtedness increased faster. This was possible due to the role of the EMU in the deep integration of financial markets. To support these arguments, the paper provides data which shows the fast development of structured financial products in the aftermath of single currency, and its effect on credit growth, in particular to finance residential mortgages. In this scenario of strong capital markets dependency the sudden stop of financial flows allows to lay out the second hypothesis, which states that the euro membership, together with its incomplete character, and the absence of optimum currency area characteristics, worsened the effects of the international financial crisis turning it into a sovereign debt crisis in Spain, as reflected by unsustainable levels of the public funding costs...
The aim of this PhD dissertation is to analyze the role of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the Spanish’s credit bubble built up, in its burst and in its transformation into a financial debt crisis, at first, and lastly into a debt sovereign crisis. To do so, the PhD lays out two hypotheses. The first one is that the UEM was a driving factor in the real estate boom in Spain, which burst derived in a deep financial crisis since 2008. The dataset presented in the paper indicates that the single currency caused a rapid convergence of interest rates paid by the private sectors of the European economies. In the case of Spain, the analysis reveals the existence of an exponential relationship between interest rates fall and the increase of outstanding credit. It also reveals that cheaper funding didn’t have an equal impact on every sector of the Spanish economy, being the residential one where indebtedness increased faster. This was possible due to the role of the EMU in the deep integration of financial markets. To support these arguments, the paper provides data which shows the fast development of structured financial products in the aftermath of single currency, and its effect on credit growth, in particular to finance residential mortgages. In this scenario of strong capital markets dependency the sudden stop of financial flows allows to lay out the second hypothesis, which states that the euro membership, together with its incomplete character, and the absence of optimum currency area characteristics, worsened the effects of the international financial crisis turning it into a sovereign debt crisis in Spain, as reflected by unsustainable levels of the public funding costs...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada I, leída el 10/11/2015