Characterization of spread in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: multiphysics versus initial conditions



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Fernández González, Sergio and Sastre Marugán, Mariano and Valero Rodríguez, Francisco and Merino, Andrés and García Ortega, Eduardo and Sánchez, José Luis and Lorenzana, Jesús and Martín, María Luisa (2019) Characterization of spread in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: multiphysics versus initial conditions. Meteorologische zeitschrift, 28 (1). pp. 59-67. ISSN 0941-2948

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In this research, uncertainty associated with initial and boundary conditions is evaluated for short-term wind speed prediction in complex terrain. The study area is the Alaiz mountain range, a windy region in the northern Iberian Peninsula. A multiphysics and multiple initial and boundary condition ensemble prediction system (EPS) was generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Uncertainty of the EPS is analyzed using an index based on the spread between ensemble members, considering its behavior under different wind speed and direction events, and also during distinct atmospheric stability conditions. The results corroborate that physical parameterization uncertainty is greater for short-term forecasts (63.5%). However, it is also necessary to consider the uncertainty associated with initial conditions, not only for its quantitative importance (36.5%) but also for its behavior during thermal inversion conditions in the narrow valleys surrounded by mountains.

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© 2018 The authors. This work was partially supported by research projects METEORISK (RTC-2014-1872-5), PCIN-2014-013- C07-04 and PCIN2016-080 (UE ERA-NET Plus NEWA Project), ESP2013-47816-C4-4-P, CGL2010- 15930, CGL2016-78702-C2-1-R and CGL2016-78702- C2-2-R, CGL2016-81828-REDT, and the Instituto de Matemática Interdisciplinar (IMI) of the Universidad Complutense. Special thanks go to Steven Hunter and Analisa Weston. To request the data, please contact S. Fernández-González (

Uncontrolled Keywords:Evening transitions; Weather research; Surface wind; Model; WRF; Performance; Management; Storms; Speed; Shear
Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:55376
Deposited On:28 May 2019 10:19
Last Modified:29 May 2019 07:30

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