European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE



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González Rouco, J. Fidel and Melo Aguilar, Camilo Andrés (2019) European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE. Environmental research letters, 14 (8). ISSN 1748-9326

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The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate covariability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.

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© 2019 The Author(s). Artículo firmado por 19 autores. This is a contribution from the interdisciplinary and international framework of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k initiative (Euro-Med2k), which in turn received support from the US and Swiss National Science Foundations. FCL acknowledges support by the Royal Swedish Academy of Letters, History and Antiquities, the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation, and the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, grant no. 2018-01272), AS by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grant no. SE 2802/1-1), JFG-R, CMA and EG-B by the Spanish National Funding Agency (projects ILModelS and GreatModelS, ref. CGL2014-59644-R and RTI2018-102305-B-C21), J L by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate (grant no. 41661144008), J L and E X by the DAAD project 'The Mediterranean Hot-Spot', KS by FORMAS (grant no. 2014-723), J W by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2017YFA0603302) and the NSFC (grant no. 41602192), JE by the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant No. Inst 247/665-1 FUGG and grant No. ES 161/9-1), and UB by the SustES.

Uncontrolled Keywords:Tree-ring width; Climate variability; Last millenium; Global drought; Growth; Model; Simulations; Responses; CMIP5; Reconstructions
Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:57403
Deposited On:31 Oct 2019 12:05
Last Modified:31 Oct 2019 12:59

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