Publication: Estudio de la excepcionalmente tardía e inusual ciclogénesis explosiva Miguel
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2020
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Abstract
Miguel fue una profunda borrasca que se intensificó de manera explosiva en las proximidades de la Península Ibérica a comienzos de junio de 2019. Por su tardía e inusual ocurrencia y por los impactos que causó (temporal de viento, lluvia y marítimo), su análisis resulta crucial para poder mejorar en la predicción de estos eventos extremos. En este trabajo se analizan las condiciones atmosféricas que propiciaron la formación y evolución de Miguel. Asimismo, se investigan sus similitudes con otros ciclones explosivos desarrollados en el sur de Europa en los 40 años previos. Para ello, se utilizan datos de reanálisis atmosféricos (ERA-Interim y NCEP) y de predicción operativa de alta resolución (WRF). Para la identificación y seguimiento de ciclones, se emplea un algoritmo de tracking automático. Los resultados muestran que Miguel siguió una trayectoria mucho más meridional que la mayoría de los doce precedentes identificados. Sus precursores dinámicos fueron similares al resto, con una corriente en chorro intensificada al oeste de Europa y un río atmosférico en superficie. Sin embargo, la configuración de la circulación en el Atlántico Norte en la que se desarrolló Miguel fue más ondulada y menos zonal que en los casos previos. En relación a las características de los ciclones tardíos (mayo-julio) en el entorno de la Península Ibérica, tanto la variabilidad natural como el cambio climático parecen ejercer cierta influencia en la modulación de su frecuencia de ocurrencia e intensidad media.
Miguel was a strong extratropical cyclone that explosively intensified in the vicinity of the Iberian Peninsula in early June 2019. Due to its late and unusual occurrence and the impacts it caused (strong wind gusts, heavy rain and swell), its analysis is crucial to better predict these extreme events. This work analyzes the atmospheric conditions that led to the formation and evolution of Miguel. Its similarities with explosive cyclones developed in southern Europe within the previous 40 years are also investigated. With this aim, atmospheric reanalysis (ERA- Interim and NCEP) and high-resolution operational prediction (WRF) data are used. For the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones, an automatic algorithm is employed. The results show that Miguel followed a much more meridional trajectory than most of the twelve identified predecessors. It developed under favorable dynamical conditions, with an intensified jet stream over western Europe and an atmospheric river on surfa- ce. However, the North Atlantic circulation configuration in which Miguel intensified was much more undulated and less zonal than in previous cases. In relation to the characte- ristics of late cyclones (may-july) near the Iberian Peninsula, both natural variability and climate change seem to exert certain influence on the modulation of their frequency of occurrence and mean intensity.
Miguel was a strong extratropical cyclone that explosively intensified in the vicinity of the Iberian Peninsula in early June 2019. Due to its late and unusual occurrence and the impacts it caused (strong wind gusts, heavy rain and swell), its analysis is crucial to better predict these extreme events. This work analyzes the atmospheric conditions that led to the formation and evolution of Miguel. Its similarities with explosive cyclones developed in southern Europe within the previous 40 years are also investigated. With this aim, atmospheric reanalysis (ERA- Interim and NCEP) and high-resolution operational prediction (WRF) data are used. For the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones, an automatic algorithm is employed. The results show that Miguel followed a much more meridional trajectory than most of the twelve identified predecessors. It developed under favorable dynamical conditions, with an intensified jet stream over western Europe and an atmospheric river on surfa- ce. However, the North Atlantic circulation configuration in which Miguel intensified was much more undulated and less zonal than in previous cases. In relation to the characte- ristics of late cyclones (may-july) near the Iberian Peninsula, both natural variability and climate change seem to exert certain influence on the modulation of their frequency of occurrence and mean intensity.
Description
Máster Universitario en Meteorología y Geofísica. Facultad de Ciencias Físicas. Curso 2019-2020.