Publication: An assessment of observed and simulated temperature variability in Sierra de Guadarrama
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2020-09
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MDPI AG
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Abstract
This work provides a first assessment of temperature variability at interannual and decadal timescales in Sierra de Guadarrama, a high mountain protected area of the Central System in the Iberian Peninsula. Observational data from stations located in the area and simulated data from a high-resolution simulation (1 km) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, fed from ERA Interim reanalysis, are used in order to analyse the temperature variability in the period 2000–2018. Comparison among all datasets allows evaluation of the realism of the model simulations. The results show that the model tends to underestimate the observational mean temperatures and anomalies at high-altitude stations. A linear mean temperature vertical gradient of −5.81 ◦C/km is observed, but it is overestimated by the model (−6.56 ◦C/km). The variability of the daily temperature anomalies for both observations and, to a lesser extent, simulations increases with height. The added value that the WRF offers against the use of the ERA Interim is evaluated. The results show that the WRF provides a better performance than the reanalysis, as it shows smaller biases with respect to observational temperature anomalies. Finally, the study of temperature trends over the Sierra de Guadarrama and its surroundings for the period 2000–2018 shows a warming in the area, significantly pronounced in autumn. When extended to the last decades, observations show that this warming has been happening since the first half of the 20th century, especially during the period 1970–2018, but not as much as during 2000–2018.
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© The Authors 2020. We would like to thank the GuMNet initiative (www.ucm.es/gumnet) for providing observational data in the Sierra de Guadarrama from 2014 to 2018 and the former Parque Natural de Peñalara for data from 2000 to 2014, as well as the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMet) for providing data from the remaining stations (see Table 1). We thank NCAR and ECMWF for making the WRF model code and ERA Interim outputs available. All the software used in this assessment has been developed by the research group using FORTRAN code and will be made available under request to any interested users. We would also like to thank: the UCM-UPM-Ciemat Cooperation Agreement for the support of GuMNet, the ILModels (CGL2014-59644-R/CLI), and GreatModelS (RTI2018-102305-B-C21d) projects. And last, we would like to acknowledge the support from the Convocatoria de Empleo Joven de la Comunidad de Madrid.