Publication: La Curva de Phillips desde una perspectiva Clásica
Loading...
Official URL
Full text at PDC
Publication Date
2020
Advisors (or tutors)
Editors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
Citations
Exportar
Abstract
En este artículo planteamos que la relación entre los salarios y el desempleo codificada en la Curva de Phillips original (CP) (Phillips, 1958) puede estudiarse mejor desde la perspectiva analítica postulada por la economía política clásica que en los términos expresados en la hipótesis NAIRU (Friedman, 1968, 1977). Nuestra hipótesis radica en que es posible postular una versión clásica de la CP en la que la tasa de crecimiento de la productividad afecta positivamente al salario real. Para contrastar la hipótesis realizamos un análisis econométrico con datos de Alemania, España, Estados Unidos y Francia. Los resultados empíricos sugieren que es posible encontrar una correlación como la que postulamos.
It is argued in this paper that a Classical Political Economy rendition of the original Phillips Curve (PC) (Phillips, 1958) provides a better understanding of the relationship between real wages and the rate of unemployment than the NAIRU hypothesis put forth by Friedman (1968, 1977). Hence a ‘Classical’ PC is here entertained to show the positive effect of increasing productivity on real wages. Our hypothesis is empirically tested using data for Germany, Spain, the United States and France. And the econometric results show the existence of high correlation between the variables emphasized by the Classical PC.
It is argued in this paper that a Classical Political Economy rendition of the original Phillips Curve (PC) (Phillips, 1958) provides a better understanding of the relationship between real wages and the rate of unemployment than the NAIRU hypothesis put forth by Friedman (1968, 1977). Hence a ‘Classical’ PC is here entertained to show the positive effect of increasing productivity on real wages. Our hypothesis is empirically tested using data for Germany, Spain, the United States and France. And the econometric results show the existence of high correlation between the variables emphasized by the Classical PC.
Description
UCM subjects
Unesco subjects
Keywords
Citation
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy, American Economic Review 58, pp. 1-17.
Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment, Journal of Political Economy, 85 (3), pp.451-472.
Galí, J. (2002). New perspectives on monetary policy, inflation, and the bussines cycle [CEPR Discussion Paper no. 3210]. Londres: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Goodwin, R.M., (1967). A Growth Cycle. En C.H. Feinstein (ed.): Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 54-58.
Gordon, R. J. (1970). Milton Friedman´s Monetary Framework: A Debate with his Critics. Chicago, The University of Chicago Press.
Gordon, R. J. (2018), Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips curve view from a half century´s perspectives. Review of Keynesian Economics Vol 6, no. 4, pp. 425-436.
Greene (1999). Análisis econométrico, Nueva York, Prentice Hall.
Hansen, A. (1953). A guide to Keynes. Nueva York, McGraw-Hill.
Hicks, J.R. (1937). Mr. Keynes and the “classics”; a suggested interpretation Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 147-159.
Jevons, W.S. (1871). The Theory of Political Economy. Londres: Macmillan.
Kalecki, M., (1937). A Theory of the Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 77-97.
Keynes, J. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Nueva York, N.Y. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
Kydland, F. E. y E. C. Prescott (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans, Journal of Political Economy 85, Junio, pp. 473-91.
Lavoie, M. (2015), Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations, Estados Unidos, Edward Edgar Publishing Inc.
Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, 42: 102-24.
Lucas, R. E. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: a critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. Vol. 1, pp. 19-46.
Lucas, R.E. y L. Rapping, (1969). Real wages, employment and inflation. Journal of political economy, vol. 77, no. 5, pp. 721-754.
Marshall, A. [1890] (1977). Principles of Economics, 8a. Edición, Londres: Macmillan.
Marx, K. (1867), El capital Tomo I. Vol.1,( 2ª reimpresión, 2001), México, Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Modigliani, F. (1944). Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money. Econometrica. Reimpreso en The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, i, ed. Andrew Abel. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Palley, T. (2018). Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory: hysteresis of ideas and the natural rate of employment. Review of Keynesian Economics Vol 6, no. 4, pp. 473-492.
Perrotini, I. (2014). Precios de activos y política monetaria en la nueva síntesis neoclásica. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, vol.9, no. 1, pp.89–102.
Pérez C. (2007). Econometría básica. Técnicas y Herramientas. Madrid, Pearson Educación.
Phelps. E. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica New Series, Vol. 34, no. 135, Agosto, pp.254-281.
Phelps, E. (1968). Money-wage dynamics and labor-market equilibrium. Journal of political economy. Vol. 76, no. 4, pp.678-711.
Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, Vol. 25, no.100, pp. 283–299.
Pigou, A.C. (1933). The Theory of Unemployment. Londres: Macmillan.
Ramsey, F. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The Economic Journal. Vol.38, no.152, pp.543-559.
Ricardo, D. (1817), Principios de economía política y tributación (8ª reimpresión 2014), México, Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Samuelson, P. y R. Solow, (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. The American Economic Review. Vol. 50, no. 2, pp.177-194.
Sargent, T. J., y N. Wallace, (1975). Rational Expectation, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.83, pp. 241–257.
Shaikh, A. (2016), Capitalism: Competition, Conflict and Crisis, Estados Unidos, Oxford University Press.
Smith, A. (1776), Investigación sobre la naturaleza y causas de la riqueza de las naciones (19ª reimpresión 2014), México, Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Solow, R. (2018), A theory is a sometime thing. Review of Keynesian Economics. Vol 6, no. 4, pp. 421-424.
Taylor, J. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference, series on Public Policy.
Taylor, J. (editor), 1999, Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago, University of Chicago Press NBER. Vol. 39, pp. 195-214.
Walras, [1874] (1924). Eléments d´économie politique pure. Lausanne: Corbaz, 5ª. Edición, Paris: F. Richon.
Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.