Publication: Análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en España
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2020
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Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)
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Desde el inicio de 2010 el debate sobre el ajuste presupuestario y la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública se ha intensificado. Las posibilidades de crecimiento del sector público español están restringidas por el elevado monto de la deuda pública, en cuya evolución futura hay dos factores determinantes. El primero es el nivel de los tipos de interés que el Tesoro deberá pagar para colocar la deuda entre los inversores. El segundo es el saldo primario, que depende del crecimiento nominal de la economía y de las políticas fiscales que se apliquen el futuro. El trabajo trata de presentar la problemática de la sostenibilidad de la deuda en España estableciendo un modelo que vincule el crecimiento del PIB nominal con el saldo de la cuenta primaria de las AAPP y plantee diversos escenarios de la ratio Deuda/PIB a largo plazo coherente con las hipótesis establecidas.
Since the beginning of 2010 the debate on budgetary adjustment and sustainability of public debt has intensified. The possibilities of growth of the Spanish public sector are restricted by the high amount of public debt, in whose future evolution there are two determining factors. The first is the level of interest rates that the Treasury must pay to place the debt among investors. The second is the primary balance, which depends on the nominal growth of the economy and the fiscal policies that are applied in the future. The paper tries to present the problem of debt sustainability in Spain by establishing a model that links the growth of nominal GDP with the balance of the primary account of the AAPP and proposes various scenarios of the longterm Debt / GDP ratio consistent with the established hypotheses.
Since the beginning of 2010 the debate on budgetary adjustment and sustainability of public debt has intensified. The possibilities of growth of the Spanish public sector are restricted by the high amount of public debt, in whose future evolution there are two determining factors. The first is the level of interest rates that the Treasury must pay to place the debt among investors. The second is the primary balance, which depends on the nominal growth of the economy and the fiscal policies that are applied in the future. The paper tries to present the problem of debt sustainability in Spain by establishing a model that links the growth of nominal GDP with the balance of the primary account of the AAPP and proposes various scenarios of the longterm Debt / GDP ratio consistent with the established hypotheses.
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